Macroeconomic and Regional Forecasting

Tapping information often reveals a hidden competitive advantage.

Even though most institutions now have more computing power than ever before, they are far from exploiting the potential productive benefits. Tremendous amounts of information have not been utilized to improve decision-making. Many critical questions exist, but the quantitative skills to find useful answers are not always available.

Chmura Economics & Analytics brings together the skill and experience to turn data into information that leads to confident decisions and the realization of bold goals. We offer software solutions as well as customized products to meet the particular needs of your organization.

National/Financial

Macro model - Our national model forecasts over 100 indicators, including the components of gross domestic product, interest rates, housing activity, retail sales, and employment. Our interest rate forecast is published in our Weekly Economic Update.

Probability of recession model - The Recession Monitor estimates the probability of a recession occurring in the next six months. Download a sample of this publication.

Regional

Firms - Why is a particular product line, such as commercial loans or automobiles growing at its current rate? Is growth occurring in line with economic activity or demographic trends at the national and regional level? Or are exceptional management skills driving growth to higher levels than fundamental conditions would suggest? Product-line forecasting can help you allocate the resources of your firm. It also allows you set goals that take into account fundamental growth and provides a measure of the remaining growth that can be attributed to the value added provided by management.

Forecasts - We provide forecasts of employment, wages, retail sales, and building permits for Virginia and its metropolitan areas in our quarterly Virginia Economic Trends. Forecasts are available for other regions in Virginia or outside of Virginia upon request. We also forecast regional skill gaps for occupations and industries.

Impact Studies - How will employment and income in a region change when a particular industry closes a plant , expands a location, or is part of a new firm entry? What will be the fiscal and economic impacts of a new office building or development on a locality? How does a firm or tourism events impact the state or regional economy? These scenarios can be addressed in further detail by considering the industries most dependent on the event in question and the degree to which other industries are affected by the event in question (estimated sales and job gains)? Finally, impact studies consider how these changes ripple through the economy with direct and total dollar impacts. Chmura Economics & Analytics can help you answer all of these questions with our sophisticated input-output models.

Industries - What are the growth prospects for a particular industry? Is the industry in secular decline or is it undergoing a short-term restructuring? What occupations and skills are needed? Industry analysis provides businesses and economic developers with an objective assessment of potential trends. The examples below provide a broad analysis of an industry within one state.

Download Examples:

• Electronics Industry in Virginia -
  • What industries comprise the electronics industry in the state, where are they located, and what are their average salaries?
  • How does growth in the state’s industry compare with that of the nation?
• Materials Industry in Virginia -
• Where are the materials industry firms located within the state and what do they produce?
• What materials industries are considered high-tech?

Leading indexes - Leading indexes for Virginia as well as its metropolitan areas (Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, Richmond-Petersburg, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Danville, Winchester, Harrisonburg, and Blacksburg) typically change direction ahead of business cycle turns in the economy. Download a sample of our leading index report.

Contact us to request more information about this topic.