Xiaobing Shuai

E-mail

Academic Background

Professional Portfolio

Senior Economist
Chmura Economics & Analytics
(2004-present)

• Develop macro economic model to forecast macro indicators and interest rates using RATS. Results published in Survey of Professional Forecasters by Philly Fed, and Virginia Economic Trend.
• Develop Virginia regional economic models to forecast regional economic growth and employment trends using RATS. Forecast published at Virginia Economic Trend.
• Developed Interest Rate forecast model. Forecast published at Blue Chip Financial Forecast. Housing index and mortgage rate forecast published at Housing Market Report.
• Research on rural and regional development, including target marketing study, and industry cluster analysis.
• Research workforce development issues, including occupation cluster analysis, labor market supply and demand forecast.
• Conduct economic impact studies using IMPLAN.
• Develop models to project education demand and supply.

Senior Analyst
Capital One Financial Corp
(1999-2004)

• Researched on portfolio and industry level financial risk, making recommendations on corporate wide policy and standard regarding credit risk management.
• Developed statistical models (using SAS) to predict response to direct mail campaign, attrition, credit risks, and customer behaviors related to Small Business Segments.
• Conducted market research and segmentation studies.

Research and Teaching Assistant
University of Wisconsin-Madison
(1994-1999)

• Researched on the land use and environmental issues for Philippines watersheds, co-authored several research papers.
• Taught Economic Statistics class (ECON310) with excellent evaluation

Accountant
Baosteel International Trade Corp (Shanghai, China)
(1992-1994)

• Certified Accountant on export finance for a large trade company.
• Managed accounts of trade partners worldwide.

Publications

• Are center cities the engines of growth for their suburbs?—Evidences from Virginia’s metropolitan areas, Business Economics, 40(4): 22-31, October 2005.
• Testing the income convergence among Virginia’s cities and counties, Forthcoming, Virginia Economic Journal, Volume 10, 2005.
• Development policies, resource constraints, and agricultural expansion on the Philippine land frontier, with Ian Coxhead and Gerald Shively, Environment and Development Economics, 7(2):341-363, May 2002.
• Multinationals, information update and product adaptation, International Economic Journal, 14(2):41-66, Summer 2000.
• Agricultural development policies and land expansion in a southern Philippine watershed, with Ian Coxhead and Gerald Shively, in A. Angelsen and D. Kaimowits (eds.) Agricultural Technologies and Tropical Deforestation,347-365, London: CAB International, 2000.

Conference Presentations

• "Are center cities the engines of growth for their suburbs?—Evidences from Virginia’s metropolitan areas", presented at the National Association for Business Economics 47th Annual Meeting, September 26th, 2005, Chicago.
• "Modeling the Fed action and the interest rates of the United States", presented at the 32th Annual Meeting of Virginia Association of Economists, March, 11th, 2005, Richmond, VA.
• "U.S. Economy in 2003 and its 2004 outlook", presented at 31th Annual Meeting of Virginia Association of Economists, March 18th , 2004, Richmond, VA.

Awards

• NABE Contributed Paper Award-2005, National Association for Business Economics
• Henry Taylor Doctoral Dissertation Award—2000, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Professional Affiliations

• Member of National Association for Business Economics
• Member of Richmond Association for Business Economics
• Member of Virginia Association of Economists
• Panel Member of Housing Market Report
• Panel Member of Blue Chip Financial Forecasters
• Panel Member of Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters