RTI State Recovery Model

Using the full RTI dataset, Chmura has developed a model to predict what new RTI volume would be for each week of 2020 under a scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic had never occurred – what we call "expected volume." By comparing observed volume to expected volume, we can better understand how much volume changes are directly related to the pandemic and recovery, allowing us to better track the recovery.

To help visitors better track the recovery in their own state, Chmura is making our expected volume data available through the two interactive graphics below. The first is a map that displays the percentage difference between expected volume and observed volume for every state on a specified week, with every week of the pandemic (week of March 1 through latest available data) being viewable. This allows you to easily compare the recovery in your state to other states in the nation. The second chart is a time series graph, plotting expected volume and observed volume for a specified state (or the United States) allowing you to track the recovery over time. Hover over either line in the chart to see the indexed expected volume, indexed observed volume, and the percentage difference between the two. Select a state on the map to see that state's time series chart or deselect all states to see the U.S. chart.

About the Model

To learn more about the expected volume model, please read these two blogs:

COVID-19: RTI Recovery Update and Introducing State Level Recovery Tracking

COVID-19: Measuring the Impact on Job Postings During the Pandemic