Weekly Economic Update Podcast

Listen to this week's podcast of the Chmura Weekly Economic Update.

Chmura Recession Index

The Chmura Recession Index forecasts a 42% probability of recession occurring in six months from now (September 2008). In a periodic model update, Chmura added a new variable capturing the interest differences between domestic and global financial markets, a change that boosted the July 2008 probability to 58%. Though such a single month of elevated probability (such as also occurred in 1999) provides a warning that the economy is likely to slow, it is a sustained six-month period of greater than 50% probability that establishes a clear sign that has been historically associated with recession. Click here to subscribe to the Chmura Recession Monitor or other publications.

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