The Free Enterprise Forum recently posted an article covering the latest Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy publication, "The Housing Recession". This annual publication is written and researched by Chmura Economics & Analytics. Free Enterprise Forum states that this report “required reading for all citizens living in the Old Dominion.” Here are some additional excerpts from the article:
Economists (and politicians) are always very careful about using the “R” word. According to many that study the “dismal science” the mere mention of a possible recession can in fact trigger human behavior that results in a recession. So when a highly respected economist focuses on the Old Dominion and uses Recession in the paper’s title, we take note. Importantly, the paper backs up the theory with significant data, analysis and regionally specific forecasts for the year ahead. “The Housing Recession” is the title of The Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy’s Virginia Economic Forecast 2008-09. Researched and written by noted economist Christine Chmura, Ph.D. of Chmura Economics & Analytics, this fascinating paper foresees lower than potential growth through 2009. The paper highlights concern about energy prices and their impact on inflationary pressures as a risk to growth expectations. According to the report, the Charlottesville metro area experienced 12 quarters of double digit home price growth from Q4 2003 - Q3 2006. Such a high rate of price growth negatively impacted the housing affordability in the region which stood at 32.3% at the end of 1st qtr of 2008 (defined as percent of households that could afford a median priced home as estimated by the Chmura Home Affordability Index). This is significantly lower than the state’s affordability rate of 39.2% and the national rate of 43.7% for the same period.
Economists (and politicians) are always very careful about using the “R” word. According to many that study the “dismal science” the mere mention of a possible recession can in fact trigger human behavior that results in a recession. So when a highly respected economist focuses on the Old Dominion and uses Recession in the paper’s title, we take note. Importantly, the paper backs up the theory with significant data, analysis and regionally specific forecasts for the year ahead.
“The Housing Recession” is the title of The Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy’s Virginia Economic Forecast 2008-09. Researched and written by noted economist Christine Chmura, Ph.D. of Chmura Economics & Analytics, this fascinating paper foresees lower than potential growth through 2009. The paper highlights concern about energy prices and their impact on inflationary pressures as a risk to growth expectations.
According to the report, the Charlottesville metro area experienced 12 quarters of double digit home price growth from Q4 2003 - Q3 2006. Such a high rate of price growth negatively impacted the housing affordability in the region which stood at 32.3% at the end of 1st qtr of 2008 (defined as percent of households that could afford a median priced home as estimated by the Chmura Home Affordability Index). This is significantly lower than the state’s affordability rate of 39.2% and the national rate of 43.7% for the same period.
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The Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy report should be required reading for all citizens living in the Old Dominion.
Read the full article here: Recessionary Required Reading
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