Chmura Recession Monitor Through June 2019: 35%

Economic growth in the United States has generally been modest to moderate since the recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2009. After increasing at a 4.2% annual rate in the 2nd quarter of 2018, real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the 3rd quarter as growth in consumer spending remained strong and a healthy contribution to growth from change in private inventories offset a subtraction from trade. Due to the 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 in December and the narrowing yield spread, the probability of recession jumped to 35% through June 2019.

Highlights from EQ Connect 18

The EQ Connect 18 conference was a success on many levels. From the speakers, to the attendees getting JobsEQ FIT certified, to the Salamander Resort, we had numerous epiphanies. The unexpected snow was the biggest epiphany of them all! Yes, Virginia, there are still epiphanies! As a special treat, Reilly, the Chief Data Dog, was available throughout the conference for selfies with our attendees! It was quite the social media hit!

Economic Impact: The economy is performing well but are there signs a possible recession is looming?

A shopper checks out holiday ornaments inside the Target store at 9001 Staples Mill Road in Henrico County on Nov. 19, a few days ahead of Black Friday. Over the past month, many analysts have started to talk about the possibility of a recession looming in 2019. And with good reason. All three major stock market indices finished 2018 with their worst annual performance since 2008.

Trade War and Chinese Currency Devaluation

Since President Trump took office, trade policy has been an essential component of his overall economic agenda, in addition to tax cuts and regulatory changes. After passing the tax cut legislation in 2017, the administration started implementing major changes to trade policies in 2018 with goals of reducing the U.S. trade deficit and generating jobs in America. For example, the administration re-negotiated the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada (USMCA Agreement) to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).