The Federal Reserve's Open Markets Committee did pretty much as expected yesterday, leaving its key interest rate target unchanged between zero and 0.25 percent and sticking to plans to purchase government bonds and asset-backed securities.
Analysts and economists liked what they saw when they parsed the Fed's statement for signs of where it thinks the economy is going. And that is up, if slowly, said Christine Chmura, president of the Richmond-based economic consulting firm Chmura Economics and Analytics.
She said the committee's statement that it is looking for gradual recovery, with prices remaining stable, echoes what many economists are saying these days.
Still, "It's good that we hear that," she said, especially from the powerful group that sets the nation's interest-rate policy.
"Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustained economic growth in a context of price stability," the Fed said in the statement issued yesterday afternoon after the committee's two-day meeting.
Jamie Cox, managing partner with Harris Financial Group, said the statement marked an important turn.
"We have been dealing with the threat of deflation," he said, referring to a spiral of falling prices and layoffs that feeds upon each other. "Today, the deflation scare is over."
Chmura said the statement likely means short-term interest rates will remain down, keeping consumer's borrowing costs low. And the committee's view that there's enough slack in the economy to keep inflation down was likely to keep a lid on mortgage rates by calming bond markets, she said.
This post was contributed by Meredith Walker, who writes about the online college directory. She welcomes your feedback at MeredithWalker1983 at gmail.com.
This is a question that economists the world over have been pondering ever since unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies reached all time highs in 2008 and 2009. With many people still out of work and businesses, even major ones, closing left and right, it’s hard for some to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Yet most don’t see a particularly dark future ahead for the global economy. In a poll by CNN of 21 delegates at the World Economic Forum, most believed the economy would recover next year, and some even believed things would settle down by the end of this year. CNBC correspondent Carmen Wong Ulrich believes that we’re more than halfway there. And the average person? While the vast majority see the economic crisis lasting well into this year and beyond, some are optimistic in stating they believe we’ve already hit bottom and are slowly moving towards improvement.
Yet according to statistics, this is one of the longest economic recessions since the Great Depression, lasting almost 18 months with no definitive end in sight. Can the end really come as soon as this year?
The vast majority of indicators seem to point to no, but things do appear to be improving, though incredibly slowly. Jobless claims are still in the 600,000 range and that doesn’t even begin to take into account those who are underemployed and not making a living wage at the jobs they do have. For a major change to occur, jobs not only need to stop being cut from businesses but new ones need to be created in significant numbers as well as people don’t spend when they don’t have jobs and consumer confidence is a big part of economic recovery. Unemployment has dropped in the past few months, but not by a significant amount. Still, it may be a start and somewhere to work from.
Of course, for a real turnaround to be made, big changes need to happen in the housing and stock markets as well, where prices have been dismal in the past few months, with the stock market reaching epic lows in March. So far, neither of these is making any sustained or dramatic improvements, indicating that economic recovery may be further away than anticipated and more patience will be required to pull through these tough times.
Chris Chmura was recently quoted in an article by Emily Dooley of the Richmond Times-Dispatch:
EMILY C. DOOLEY TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER
Published: June 9, 2009
The Richmond region has lost more jobs than any other metro area in the state, an economist said yesterday.
From when employment -- the number of jobs -- peaked in the Richmond area in August 2007 through March 2009, the region lost 26,000 jobs. The job losses included thousands resulting from the bankruptcies of Circuit City Stores Inc., LandAmerica Financial Group Inc., and Qimonda AG.
The Hampton Roads area's employment hit its highest mark in July 2007. Northern Virginia's peak came a year later. Both regions have lost 20,000 jobs since their employment peaked.
Despite the time differences, the numbers can be compared because they represent the duration and depth of the recession in a given area, said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at the Richmond firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.
But there also is a bright side: The layoffs should not be so severe in the months to come.
"We're still declining . . . but the worst of it is behind us," Chmura said while presenting the Virginia Economic Forecast funded by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy for the past 10 years.
Virginia also is doing better than the nation. From March 2008 to March 2009, Virginia employment fell by 2.4 percent. During that same period, employment fell by 3.5 percent nationwide, the report said.
Chmura said she expects the recession to end during the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2010.
The reason: The stock market is performing well; inventories of goods are declining, indicating that demand will renew a need for supply; federal stimulus money will begin or already has filtered into the public; and consumer confidence is rising.
"The fastest rate of decline is behind us," Chmura said.
Dr. Christine Chmura, one of the state's top private economists, said today that Virginia is doing better economically than the country overall during this current recession. In the 10th annual Virginia Economic Forecast, published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy and released Monday morning at the Virginia Chamber of Commerce office in Richmond, Dr. Chmura projects the recession continuing through this year before a slow recovery begin the second half of 2010.
Employment has declined 2.6% since its peak in December 2008. This compares favorably to the national employment decline of 3.7%. Virginia home prices fell 1.2% in 2008 over 2007 while dramatically falling 4.6% in the 4th quarter of 2008 - the largest quarterly decline since tracking of home prices began in 1976.
Chmura forecasts a 1.6% decline in employment in Virginia for 2009 and expects employment increases to begin in the second half of 2010. Housing permits will decline 18.8% in 2009, after falling 33.9% in 2008. Housing permits will grow by 5.5% in 2010.
Each year this Jefferson Institute's Annual Economic Forecast highlights a current public policy issue and this year it focused on Climate Change. Chmura's report states that there continues to be debate within the scientific community on the extent and the causes of climate change. This year's Economic Forecast discusses the economic impact of proposed actions to confront climate change - those that make economic sense and those that do not. Dr. Chmura served on the Governor's Climate Change Commission.
The Thomas Jefferson Institute is Virginia's premier non-partisan public policy foundation which refers to itself as a "solutions tank" since it seeks alternatives to current government programs and policies.
Despite recent announcements of hundreds of layoffs at DuPont Co. and Reynolds Packaging Group, the worst of the job cuts appear to be over in Virginia, an economist said today.
"We're still declining . . . but the worst of it is behind us," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at the Richmond firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.
Chmura also said she expects the recession to end in Virginia during the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2010.
Her comments were part of an annual Virginia Economic Forecast that the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy has presented for the past decade.
The national recession continues to take its toll on the Richmond metropolitan area.
About 28,000 people in the region have lost their jobs since the area hit peak employment in August 2007.
With the area’s concentration of finance and insurance companies, it’s not surprising that the job loss in the Richmond area is larger than any of the other metro areas in the state.
Northern Virginia shed 18,000 jobs from its peak, Hampton Roads is down by 15,000, and the entire state is off by 94,000 from peak employment.
The current recession is turning out to be worse than the previous two in most regions across the state.
Northern Virginia is an exception, where employment declined only 1.6 percent through March 2009 from its peak employment in July 2008.
During the 1990 recession, which was partially driven by the overbuilding of office space and the downsizing of defense, Northern Virginia lost 4.4 percent of its jobs.
The Richmond area has already chalked up a greater percentage of losses compared with the last two recessions by looking at five economic indicators.
Employment in Richmond is down 4 percent — or 28,000 people — from its peak. The percent decline is the same as in the nation but much higher than the 2.6 percent drop in the state.
Employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industries alone declined 10 percent in the area during the past year.
Auto registrations, a proxy for auto sales, dropped by almost half since its peak early in 2005.
The mild 2001 recession saw an 18.9 percent contraction in auto registrations in the region. Without exception, auto sales in all 11 metro areas across the state have contracted more in the current recession than the last two.
The drop in retail sales, which translates into sales-tax revenue declines, provides some insight into why Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is considering more budget cuts.
With the recession expected to last six to nine more months, the current 7.1 percent drop in retail sales in Virginia from its peak in October 2007 is likely to surpass the 7.1 percent drop that occurred in the 1990 recession.
With Richmond employment decreasing more than in the state, it’s not surprising that sales have dropped further in the current recession than in either of the previous two.
Neither is it unexpected that residential building permits dropped more in the current recession than the previous two in every metro area in the state, because the recession started in the housing sector.
Richmond is no exception, with permits dropping 75 percent so far since the peak in early 2006.
The rising trend in initial unemployment claims provides a leading indicator of the labor market and affirms that the recession will continue as most economists expect. Claims so far in this recession are up 156.1 percent in the Richmond region.
Although every recession has unique drivers, they all result in layoffs and declines in sales.
As this recession begins to wind down over the next few months, the pace of the losses should decline. And barring unforeseen events, this column will be reporting about the recovery early in 2010.
Nine of Virginia's 10 metropolitan areas -- including Richmond -- experienced smaller unemployment lines in April from March, according to a report released yesterday by the Virginia Employment Commission.
Despite that drop, the rate is expected to increase this year statewide and nationally -- but not at the fast pace that it has in the past several months.
The unemployment rate in the Richmond area was 7.6 percent in April. That's down from 7.8 percent in March but still more than twice the 3.3 percent rate a year ago in April.
Virginia's unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in April, down from 6.9 percent in March but up from 3.2 percent in April 2008, according to the report. The U.S rate was 8.6 percent in April, down from 9 percent in March but up from 4.8 percent a year ago.
The numbers were not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations. The seasonally adjusted April rate in Virginia remained at the March level of 6.8 percent.
William E. Mezger, the employment commission's chief economist, said seasonal factors are the reason for the monthly fall in the unadjusted unemployment rate, attributing the improvement to hires in leisure and hospitality during the Easter holiday.
"The rate usually does fall in April," he said.
"We had a little bit of hiring activity in professional and business services in April, mostly in Northern Virginia," Mezger said. Most of the 1,800 added jobs in that sector were for accountants and computer programmers.
The April rate did not reflect any increases in construction, which is typical for this time of year. "We didn't get any pickup in construction," Mezger said. "That actually went down, and that is most unusual at this time of year."
He said the lower monthly rate is not a sign that unemployment could be subsiding. Rather, he said he expects jobless claims to rise in May and June as college and high school students look for work in a tight labor market.
Also, with General Motors and Chrysler suspending manufacturing operations, more layoffs are expected from automobile suppliers, Mezger said.
In the Richmond area, some Circuit City Stores Inc. and Qimonda employees were still on the payroll in March.
"They were gone by April," Mezger said.
Operations were shut down at both bankrupt companies. Circuit City, a consumer electronics retailer, was liquidated, closing its last stores in March.
Those job losses here were offset by an uptick in tourism activity, Mezger said.
Danville, with the highest unemployment rate in the state, was the only metro area with an increase in jobless claims, rising to 12.4 percent in April from 12.1 percent in March.
Mezger said the rise there was because of curtailed manufacturing, with unpaid work days taken during the Easter holiday.
"When we are in a recession, unemployment will continue to go up," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "Even after a recession ends, the unemployment rate will rise for a couple of months until firms see an increase in demand that is sustained."
She said she expects the recession to end in the first quarter of next year, although some economists are predicting the economy will grow again in the fourth quarter of this year.
Although the unemployment rate will move upward in Virginia and the U.S. this year, it will not move as fast as it has been, Chmura said. "But it will continue to inch higher."
BY SUSAN ELZEY SPECIAL TO THE REGISTER & BEE Published: May 23, 2009
Although Clifton Glasscock, the general manager of Buffalo Wild Wings in Danville, knew that VIR benefitted his business, he said Friday he was a little surprised to learn just how much money VIR brings into the community.
An economic impact study by Chmura Economics & Analytics released Thursday reported that the financial impact of VIR on the surrounding region brought in $77.5 million annually, with $44.9 million coming from visitor spending, of which Danville gets 51 percent and Pittsylvania County gets 27 percent.
Halifax County, where VIR is located, gets the remaining 22 percent.
“We get a phenomenal amount of people in during the VIR events,” Glasscock said. “We have several race teams who come, and we get to overstaff a bit. You definitely mark your calendar for their events.”
He said that March is always the restaurant’s biggest month due to college basketball’s March Madness, but VIR’s Big Kahuna Race in mid-August has made August the second best month.
“Last year we went out, did advertising and had a wing-eating contest as well as sponsoring the Fan Party Night,” he said.
Ham’s General Manager Shaun Robertson also keeps track of the VIR calendar, knowing he will have to add extra staff.
“Race teams come in throughout the weekend to relax in our nice atmosphere after a hard day,” he said. “We greatly appreciate all they do and hope they continue to keep growing.”
Ham’s has been in Danville for 14 years now, and Robertson said he has seen the influence from VIR since it opened 10 years ago.
In fact, the proximity of VIR was one of the considerations when Buffalo Wild Wings selected Danville as a location three years ago.
“In our business, being sports-related, we do look at the sports markets,” Glasscock said. “We considered the Martinsville Speedway, VIR, Averett University and all the high schools in the area.”
Hotels, as well as restaurants, are recipients of the spending VIR visitors bring to the community.
Vickie Barber, general manager of Courtyard by Marriott in Danville, said that visitors to VIR bring in 3 percent of the hotel’s annual revenue.
She also puts VIR events on the calendar and knows she will need extra staff at those times.
“VIR is instrumental in bringing in business during the race weekends,” she said. “VIR is a good group, and we have always enjoyed a good working relationship with everyone there and the teams who come in.”
Niles Daly, president of Daly Seven Inc., which owns the Courtyard, said Friday that VIR helps round out their business on the weekend.
Laurie Moran, president of the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce, called VIR a “tremendous asset” to the region on Friday.
“It provides a huge economic benefit, as the recent study indicated,” she said. “The Chamber has fielded numerous inquiries in recent years from prospective businesses and persons wishing to relocate because they had come to VIR and fallen in love with the community. That’s a huge benefit to our region when we have businesses and people moving here as a result of the great experience they had at VIR.”
Virginia's jobless rate remained steady from March to April, but economists say it's too early to celebrate the end of the recession.
While the nation's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 8.9 percent in April, Virginia's stayed at 6.8 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Even though the unemployment rate was unchanged in Virginia, the underlying numbers show that the economy is still contracting," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "We still have 4,000 more people unemployed."
Layoffs continued in Virginia in April, but the labor force also grew to 4.17 million, up 189,000, according to BLS data.
The subtractions and additions equaled out.
"Basically you got some layoffs in April . . . but then had some people go to work," said William F. Mezger, chief economist for the Virginia Employment Commission.
"I don't think the recession is over by any means," he added.
Nationwide, 44 states, including Virginia, and the District of Columbia lost jobs in April. California was hit worst with 63,700 jobs lost.
As for the unemployment rate, 21 states saw decreases between March and April; 18 states saw increases. In 11 states, the rate did not change.
Michigan, with an unemployment rate of 12.9 percent, had the highest jobless rate in the nation. At 4 percent, North Dakota had the lowest rate, according to the BLS data.
Virginia has the 15th-lowest jobless rate, Mezger said.
"This is actually good news," said Jay Schwartz, president of the Henrico County-based staffing and searching firm Richmond Group USA.
Schwartz said it could mean the recession has ended or the stimulus money is taking effect. "You can't spend that much money and not have an impact," he said.
Mezger expects the unemployment rate to increase in May and June when high school and college students begin looking for work, along with the 284,000 other unemployed people in the state.
"At this point, it doesn't look like it's going to be a particularly good year for summer graduates and seasonal employment," he said.
Economists expect the recession to end either in the fourth quarter of this year or in the first three months of 2010. Even then, it will take awhile for unemployment rates to go down.
Businesses, until they are sure of a recovery, may opt for temporary workers. Schwartz said that's when calls for contract employees may increase.
"Employers don't want to hire people until they're convinced they'll have enough demand to keep that person on the payroll," Chmura said. "It's easier to pick up those people and let them go."
BLUEFIELD, Va. — Despite the national economic downturn, Tazewell County officials say they are still on target to advertise the first phase of the planned Bluestone Regional Business and Technology Park for construction this summer.
“We are hoping to bid it out late spring or early summer,” County Attorney Eric Young said. “Phase one would be the intersection with (Route) 460, the entrance to the park and water, sewer and roads to the business parcels. I believe broadband is already on the 460 corridor.”
Young said the national recession hasn’t slowed the project.
“Actually, I think the IDA (Industrial Development Authority) is optimistic that we will get better bids now than we would have a year ago,” Young said. “There is still interest in the park. We actually have one industry the IDA is looking at right now that is interested in taking baby steps.”
The Bluestone, which is being developed near Bluefield, Va., is a 680-acre mixed-use development that will include sites for new businesses and industry, a workforce training center, offices, a hotel and conference center, retail stores, residential units, walking trails and even a possible nine-hole golf course.
Young said the IDA has advertised and received proposals for interim financing for the construction of the park.
The county is still working to clear a number of environmental hurdles that have delayed the start of construction on the project by almost more than a year. Young said it his understanding that most of the environmental issues have been or are being resolved.
Target industries for the mixed use development include technology-based, advanced manufacturing and energy businesses.
A 2006 study by Chmura Economics & Analytics found the Bluestone project could generate $45 million in annual sales and output for the county and employ almost 900 people in both the public and private sectors.
If you've ever gaped at a huge winter heating bill, griped at the price of what you remember as a 10-cent candy bar or groaned when filling the car's gas tank tops $50, falling prices sounds like a good thing.
But they may not be.
Here's a quick briefing from economist Christine Chmura, president of Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond, on inflation's mirror image: deflation.
What is deflation?
You get deflation when you have persistently falling prices, over several quarters.
Why is it a bad thing?
People start holding off making purchases, waiting for prices to fall more. Sales slow down and it could make a recession last longer.
Any examples?
We may be seeing deflation in housing in places like California and Florida. Prices have been falling and people aren't buying because they think they'll fall some more.
Are we facing a generalized deflation now?
I don't think so. I think price reductions are doing what businesses want them to, encouraging consumers to start buying, judging by the latest retail sales statistics.
Have we ever seen general deflation in the U.S.?
Yes, that was what happened in the Great Depression.
College and career planning is now the bailiwick of a wizard.
Virginia's community-college system yesterday launched a Web site, the Virginia Education Wizard, to help guide high school students and others who are trying to decide on a career and where to go to college.
The Web site allows them to take a career assessment, look at which industries are hiring, the education or training needed to get into a particular field and the community college where the required programs are offered.
The wizard also allows students to apply for financial aid, calculate college tuition and apply for school.
Glenn DuBois, chancellor of the community-college system, conceived of the site when booking a trip online. He saw that hotels, packages, events and side trips could be booked online at one site and wondered why that wasn't possible when it came to higher education.
So he set people to work on what he calls a one-stop resource. The Web site took two years to develop and was funded by a $2.5 million federal grant.
"Everything is available with a simple keystroke, whenever and wherever users are in their journey," DuBois said.
The site lists the careers that have the most projected demand -- registered nurse is at the top -- over the next five years. Salary information and the demand in a region is also available.
The jobs data will be updated quarterly, said Christine Chmura, whose firm, Chmura Economics and Analytics, provided programming support and will update the job market data.
"This tool is cutting-edge and unique," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, who attended the launch at the Virginia State Police Academy headquarters in Midlothian. "It truly is an amazing resource for helping folks figure out how to navigate a path."
Kendall Brown, 17, of Midlothian, a junior at Greenbrier Academy in West Virginia, checked out the wizard. "It's hard to decide what I want to do," Brown said.
"It showed what I could go into and what I need," she said. "I have a lot of deciding to do."
TAZEWELL, Va. — A project that could generate almost 900 jobs in both the public and private sectors received a boost Wednesday when the Virginia Coalfield Economic Development Authority presented $1.5 million grant to the Industrial Development Authority of Tazewell County.
The money will be used to finance site development for the planned 680-acre Bluestone Regional Business and Technology Center located along U.S. Route 460 near Bluefield. A mixed-used plan calls for including a workforce training center, offices, a hotel and conference center, retail stores, residential units, a golf course and walking trails.
Wednesday’s grant, which was approved by VCEDA in Nov. 2008, was made at the Tazewell County Administrative Office.
“It is with great pleasure that the VCEDA board approved the grant to assist Tazewell County in moving forward with phase 1 of the development of The Bluestone,” said Jonathan Belcher, VCEDA executive director. “A business and technology park of this size will truly have widespread regional economic impact.”
Having such a center of activity will benefit both Tazewell County and the entire region, Belcher added.
“It will be a new mixed use development that we believe will give Tazewell County a competitive edge,” he said. The grant will help finance infrastructure work, access road construction and other preparations that are part of phase 1.
“It’s wonderful to see something finally happen,” said Jay Rife, chairman of the VCEDA board.
An “aggressive team” made up of county supervisors, county IDA members and VCEDA have moved the Bluestone project forward, said County Administrator Jim Spencer.
“I feel like this is the beginning of good things for Tazewell County,” Spencer said.
With the Bluestone project, jobs can be generated and the quality of life can be improved, said Tazewell County IDA chairman Jim Boyd.
Situated 15 miles from Interstate 77 and eight miles east of Tazewell, Va., the site is owned by the Tazewell County IDA. Target industries for the mixed use development include technology-based, advanced manufacturing and energy businesses.
A 2006 study by Chmura Economics & Analytics said the Bluestone project is expected to generate $45 million in annual sales and output for the county and to employ almost 900 people public and private employees, said Susan Copeland, business development and public relations coordinator for VCEDA.
Another $787 billion in "stimulus" later, and we still haven't fixed the banking or housing issues that hamstring our economy. Can we relieve some of the bank issues without throwing billions more at it?
In September, I spoke with a former colleague at Crestar Bank (now SunTrust Banks), and he suggested a low-cost solution that makes sense to me. Some background is necessary to understand his solution.
When banks purchased mortgage-backed securities a few years ago, they were purchasing AAA assets that had minimal risk-based capital requirements as compared to traditional loans. In fact, banks were not required to set aside any capital against these loans.
As the housing crisis unfolded, it became clear that these asset-backed securities carried much more risk than the rating agencies had anticipated.
With this new understanding of the higher risk in the mortgage-backed securities, regulators began classifying these assets in a manner that required that capital be held for these riskier investments.
Making the problem worse is the fact that banks had to price or "mark" these nonliquid assets to market (mark-to-market), forcing the banks to write down the value of the asset and reduce capital even further. As this capital to toxic-asset ratio increased, banks became less solvent, and capital access by banks decreased.
Banks dealt with these capital pressures by reducing their "risk" assets to bolster their capital position. They reduced "risk" assets by tightening lending standards and only lending to their gold-plated and long-standing customers.
In lieu of lending, they invested funds in very low risk assets requiring minimal capital backing, such as U.S. Treasury securities. The result is the credit crunch we've been experiencing.
Here is my colleague's proposal to start thawing out the credit market: "Grandfather" in the asset-backed securities with respect to the risk-based capital calculations and mark-to-market requirements for a period of time, maybe 10 years.
In other words, these securities would be assigned the risk-based capital score they were originally assigned when they were considered to be AAA securities and carried on their books at a value that more realistically reflects their longer-term value.
These grandfathered assets would be set aside on the banks' balance sheets and banks would be allowed to work these assets out over the grandfather period. There is intrinsic value in these assets, but it will take time for that value to be realized.
Instead of the government taking on this job of valuing and selling these toxic assets, allow the banks to do so by removing the immediate pressure on their capital accounts.
Bankers are likely to take the grandfather option, because if they sell their assets to the government, the "value" of those toxic assets is immediately established and basically locks in their loss at an unrealistically low current market value. The pressure on bank capital would not be relieved.
Alternatively, if banks held the grandfathered assets and they are assigned the lower AAA risk-based capital, capital pressure is relieved and banks would have the opportunity to recover these loans in the future once things have settled down and the housing market begins to recover.
The plan makes sense to me. I wonder if Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will unveil something similar when he fills out his plan to help the credit markets.
Greg Pearson, staff writer for the Chesterfield Observer, covered Chris Chmura's recent speach to the Home Building Association of Richmond in his article Housing to bounce back next year?
Dr. Chris Chmura of Chmura Economics and Analytics told a somber group of real estate professionals last week that 2009 will be another down year, but the economy guru hopes for a turnaround in April next year. That's when she figures the metro area will have reduced its supply of homes for sale to four months - a healthy selling environment. Currently, there is almost an 11-month supply of homes in the metro while Chesterfield has a one-year supply.
There are a number of variables impacting the housing market, Churma told those who attended the Home Building Association of Richmond's local forecast breakfast seminar last Thursday. Many of them are tied to unemployment, which is expected to climb this year, though metro Richmond is faring better than the state and nation. Other factors include the national economy and housing affordability.
To aid their cause, 37 homebuilders trekked to Washington, D.C., last week to lobby senators Jim Webb and Mark Warner to include homeowners in the federal financial stimulus package. At press deadline, the Senate proposal includes the lesser of a tax credit of $15,000 or 10 percent of the purchase price over up to two years. Buyers would have to live in the home for two years as their principal residence.
Chesterfield recorded 207 foreclosures last year, accounting for one in every 562 homes in the county. Churma said the federal government is trying to get the mortgage rate down from 5.28 percent to 4.5 percent.
She predicted there will be 30 percent more new homes built in 2010 compared to this year, but the number of new homes is at a 20-year low. An additional 30 percent growth is projected for 2011.
Lloyd Mason Poe of Lifestyle Builders and Developers recommended that those in the industry diversify, get into the remodeling business and build smaller homes. The price of new homes has grown from three times household income to four times.
"We need to get below three times," he said. According to 2008 Claritas data, the median household income - half above and half below - in Chesterfield is $69,801.
Poe cited research that shows buyers are willing to pay more to be more energy effi- cient if they break even on energy costs in six years.
The Greater Richmond Partnership launched a Web site this week aimed at helping area residents find local jobs.
RichmondJobNet.com is free and intended for people who have been laid off or are searching for a new career.
"We recognize it's a challenging environment," partnership president and chief executive Gregory H. Wingfield said. "By providing a central site to support job seekers and promoting the many career opportunities our region has to offer, we hope to help individuals transition into new jobs in our market."
The site offers access to local job boards, a calendar of events, links to training and career education opportunities and social career networking on Facebook and Twitter.
Job seekers will also be able to post résumés and find resources for entrepreneurs or people wanting to start their own business.
A periodic newsletter offering job-searching tips and news about the local economy will be sent out to people who register for the service.
The first 500 people to register with the site will be eligible to sign up for a career-assessment program, CareerConcourse.
Developed by a Richmond firm, Chmura Economics and Analytics, CareerConcourse allows people to learn about training requirements and the demand for their preferred occupation, as well as scan job listings.
Companies using the site can also find out about resources available for employers.
This year will be a tough one for homebuilders, but if they can hang tight through 2009, next year should be much better.
"Once we get out of the recession, we expect to see a bounce back," said economist Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond, a speaker at yesterday's forecast meeting of the Home Building Association of Richmond.
Growth in housing starts could jump more than 30 percent in 2010 and 2011. Today they are at the lowest levels in 20 years, she said.
"If we can make it through this year, we should see pretty good growth."
Meantime, unemployment is likely to rise in Virginia as it is nationally, which will keep the brakes on housing.
The Richmond area has been hit hard in this recession, shedding 31,100 net jobs in the past 12 months, a decline of 0.8 percent from the previous year.
On the positive side, Fort Lee in Petersburg will expand by 7,700 people by 2011. And Rolls-Royce is on track to open in 2010 a jet engine plant that will employ 445 people in Prince George County.
Demand for housing is rising, as builders have cut way back on construction. But that pent-up demand is being offset by a high number of foreclosures, she said.
High inventory levels propped up by foreclosures are pushing prices down, she said.
At today's sales pace, it would take more than 10 months to clear all the houses for sale in the Richmond market, she said. A four-month supply is considered healthy.
Hanover County has the highest number of homes sitting on the market, followed in order by Chesterfield and Henrico counties and Richmond.
Chmura said she expects to see inventory levels fall here to a four-month supply by April 2010.
"The problem last year was an oversupply -- we were building too many houses," Chmura said.
Now, people are dealing with mortgage debts that are higher than their house values.
An estimated one in six homeowners, or as many as 12 million people nationwide, are underwater on their mortgages, owing more than their houses are worth, Chmura said.
"The Fed is working hard to bring mortgage interest rates to 4.5 percent on 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages," Chmura said. The rate now is 5.28 percent.
Lower rates will continue to spur refinancing, giving people more money in their pockets, and should help with purchases, she said.
Still, "We are not looking for the housing market to pick up until the economy turns around." People need to feel secure about their jobs to make major purchases, she said.
Speaker Lloyd Poe, president of LifeStyle Builders & Developers Inc. in Midlothian, said the country is worried about the auto industry and workers.
Homebuilders "are having it much worse than they are," he said, pointing to data that show 3 million housing industry jobs were lost last year. "For the first time in history, we have lost the ability to sell housing as a great investment."
Consumer buying trends have changed, he said. Say goodbye to the McMansion. People want smaller, energy-efficient houses.
High on the priority list are oversized showers, energy-efficient appliances, large kitchens and home offices, he said.
Forget the walk-out basement, wine cellar, pool and four-car garage. Also on the option chopping block is the home theater, which was hot a few years ago.
Site visitors are encouraged to register to receive a periodic newsletter providing job seeking tips and news about the area economy. The first 500 site registrants will be eligible to take a no-cost career assessment through an innovative program called CareerConcourse. Developed by Chmura Economics and Analytics, the tool allows job seekers to quickly profile their preferred occupation, learn more about the demand and training requirements for that field, and scan thousands of postings on-line. Additional features enable job seekers to manage their own career portfolio, upload their resume and do additional career related research.
Nearly 200 more temporary -- but relatively long-duration -- jobs for mortgage professionals will be opening up in the Richmond area soon.
Staffing firm Aerotek is looking for experienced mortgage processors and closers to help deal with a wave of refinancing, the Hanover, Md.-based company said.
Aerotek is seeking to meet demand for mortgage processors and closers by early March. The jobs will last nine to 18 months and could become permanent, officials said.
The employment company could not disclose who its clients are, said Aerotek's Darren Thevathasan.
However, Thevathasan did say Aerotek is under contract to several firms seeking mortgage workers. Most of the jobs are for full-time hourly employees.
With mortgage rates at their lowest in half a century, "Everybody's wanting to put in applications to see where they stand," said Brian Haug with Prosperity Mortgage Co. here.
"From November to January, business has probably picked up for most [mortgage] companies, over 100 percent," Haug said.
Richmond's financial industry has suffered in the economic downturn.
"Since we're in a recession and a lot of these people have been laid off, it makes even more sense for a financial company to set up shop or expand in Richmond because of the available labor," said Christine Chmura, president of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.
Aerotek wouldn't discuss pay rates, but did say the jobs come with on-the-job training and benefits, including medical, dental, vision and retirement plans.
"Two hundred [new] jobs would be great ordinarily," said Virginia Employment Commission economist Tim Kestner, "but with all the layoffs we've seen . . . it certainly can't, on balance, affect all the negatives we've seen."
Another staffing company, Adecco USA, announced in December that it was looking for more than 250 mortgage professionals in the Richmond area to fill temporary positions for clients.
The refinancing boom is "not only creating jobs," Chmura said. "It's also giving people more cash that they're able to spend that they would have had to spend on a mortgage."
As recession-stirred layoffs escalate in the Roanoke and New River valleys, residents of the region long for good news.
For the most part, this isn't it.
Historically, the Roanoke Metropolitan Statistical Area has tended to enter and emerge from past recessions more or less in step with other regions of the state and the nation.
And economists suggest the current recession promises to be rocky and long -- perhaps longer than any recession since the Great Depression.
But the economy of the Roanoke and New River valleys does have unique characteristics. Some are positive and some not.
Regional employment in two sectors -- health care and higher education -- could help deflect haymakers thrown by the current recession, according to two Virginia economists.
On the other hand, the region's continued ties to traditional manufacturing have already absorbed sharp blows.
Statewide, about 7 percent of jobs are manufacturing. In the Roanoke metro area, that number increases to 12 percent. It jumps to nearly 19 percent for the Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA, according to numbers cited by Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Richmond-based Chmura Economics & Analytics.
The Roanoke MSA includes the cities of Roanoke and Salem and the counties of Botetourt, Craig, Franklin and Roanoke. The Blacksburg MSA includes the city of Radford and the counties of Giles, Montgomery and Pulaski.
"Regions that have more manufacturing firms will generally undergo a sharper [employment] contraction," Chmura said in an e-mail.
That is especially true, she said, if the company manufactures durable goods "because consumers and businesses cut back on durable goods spending during recessions."
A 2000 study by Chmura warned that the region's economy continued to "cling to decades-old manufacturing industries that are in decline because they have not kept up with the changes in national and global demand."
Since then, more companies described as high-tech manufacturers have set up in the region to replace furniture, textile and apparel factories. But many of these newer operations are suffering too.
Typically, employers resist layoffs as long as possible, because they do not want to lose a trained work force. Thus, job loss tends to lag the start of recessions -- as seems to be the current case.
This go-round, the Blacksburg MSA jumped the gun in a big, bad way. From December 2006 to March 2008, employment dropped 8.2 percent, the largest such decline among the state's metro areas, Chmura reported.
This week, the Volvo truck plant in Dublin announced plans to lay off an additional 650 workers, after furloughing 973 workers just eight months ago.
Several other manufacturing companies in the Roanoke and New River valleys have announced hundreds of layoffs in recent months. Many have been suppliers to the ailing auto industry.
Bill Mezger, chief economist for the Virginia Employment Commission, offered one bright note.
When jobs plummet in the service sector, re-employment of these workers can take longer than putting manufacturing employees back to work, he said. Many manufacturers will rehire a large percentage of their former work force once demand ramps up, he said.
"Once recovery starts, I think these people are going to be absorbed very quickly," Mezger said.
Jobs recovery might be a long ways off.
Chmura has said most economists expect the recession to continue through at least the first three quarters of 2009.
Mezger said, "Employment tends to be the last thing to turn down and the last thing to recover. I expect unemployment numbers will be pretty high for all of 2009 and going into 2010 even."
The National Bureau of Economic Research studies unemployment, gross domestic product and other measures of economic activity to pinpoint peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
Sometimes the gap separating peaks and troughs has been as narrow as a month between the deepest bottom of economic activity and the deepest unemployment mark.
Yet during the past two recessions, according to the bureau, the peak and trough of employment significantly lagged the high and low points of the recession. For instance, the decline in employment reached its trough 21 months after economic activity bottomed out in November 2001, the bureau found.
Buffers
Things could be worse.
Carilion Clinic, Lewis-Gale Medical Center and other regional hospitals and medical facilities provide employment for thousands. Carilion remains the region's largest employer, with about 12,000 workers.
"Health care continues to grow, even during this recession, which will offset some of the losses in other industries," Chmura said.
For example, Carilion's ongoing transformation from a hospital-based health care provider to a clinic-based company has helped sustain job growth, said Mezger.
And colleges and universities, both public and private, abound in the region.
"Education typically does not decline much so it will also act as a buffer," Chmura said.
Mezger shared a similar observation.
He said higher education and health care tend to be the two most recession-proof sectors.
"Even if state budget cuts hurt them, state colleges and universities have a lot of other funding sources," Mezger said.
In addition, he said, "When you have a recession, people usually go back to school."
Long haul
Nationally, the current recession, which economists say began in December 2007, might prove to be the longest since 1933. Two other recessions, one beginning in November 1973 and the other in July 1981, each stretched 16 months.
At 13 months and counting, we're almost there, said Mezger.
"It looks like it's shaping up to be a bad one," he said.
And it seems that the employment fallout has only just begun.
"The sobering news for Virginia is that we may have only just begun to see the job losses that will be coming with this recession," Chmura said.
But consumers worried about keeping their jobs and falling stock portfolios have cut back on spending. Sales at U.S. retailers fell 2.7 percent in December, the government reported Wednesday.
Christine Chmura, president of Chmura Economics & Analytics, a Richmond-based economic forecasting firm, said paper and packaging companies usually are among the first to cut back when the economy slows, and the first to hire when things start looking up.
"It's like how some people have a wrapping-paper index around Christmas," she said. "If that's up, Christmas sales should be, too."
Other factors such as high costs for raw materials have hurt packaging companies. Higher energy and freight costs hit MeadWestvaco in 2008, squeezing profit margins for its two big lines of business -- the paper and cardboard used in packaging as well as plastic packaging for a range of consumer products, according to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Demand for plastic packaging for beverages and personal-care items such as cosmetics, both major lines of business, also weakened late last year. So, too, did demand for paper and office products, as businesses moved to trim costs.
STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS Published: December 6, 2008
An alarming half-million American jobs vanished last month, the worst mass layoffs in over a third of a century, as the nation hurtled toward what could be the hardest hard times since the Great Depression.
Underscoring yesterday's dismaying signs of a rapidly deteriorating economy, General Motors announced yet more job cuts, and a record number of homeowners were reported behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure.
Staring at yesterday's Labor Department report of 533,000 lost jobs in November, economists were anything but hopeful. Since the start of the recession last December, the economy has shed 1.9 million jobs, and the number of unemployed people has increased by 2.7 million -- to 10.3 million now out of work.
Some analysts predict 3 million more jobs will be lost between now and the spring of 2010.
"The economy is in a free fall," said Richard Yamarone of Argus Research. "It is as if someone flicked off the switch on hiring."
The plunge may spur President-elect Barack Obama to come up with an even bigger fiscal stimulus package than economists' projections of about $700 billion. The jobless figures also will add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to take more-radical steps to revive credit markets and on lawmakers to bail out the auto companies.
The financial crisis "is likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said yesterday, and no one was going to argue that point.
"Most economists are expecting this fourth quarter to be the fastest rate of decline over the recession," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.
She cautioned that the economy won't hit bottom, though, until the thirdor fourth quarter of next year.
Economists predicted the unemployment rate, which rose to a 15-year high of 6.7 percent in November, could soar as high as 10 percent before skittish employers begin hiring again.
Thomas Mackell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said yesterday the rate may hit 9.2 percent and layoffs likely would stretch into the public sector.
The jobless rate would have bolted to 7 percent for the month if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force for any number of reasons -- going back to school, retiring or abandoning job searches. When people stop looking, they're no longer counted in the unemployment rate.
"You've got more people who are discouraged and not even looking for work," Chmura said. "They don't feel like they can find a job and so they don't even look."
Employment shrank in virtually every part of the economy -- factories, construction companies, financial firms, accounting and bookkeeping, architectural and engineering firms, hotels and motels, food services, retailers, temporary help, transportation, publishing, janitorial and building maintenance, and even waste management.
"I didn't expect the [employment numbers] to be that large, although given the way consumers have pulled back their spending, I'm not surprised that businesses are being proactive and cutting back," Chmura said.
The United States may not come out of the recession until the spring of 2010, making for the longest downturn since the Great Depression. Recessions since the Depression have lasted from six to 16 months.
The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8 percent in 1982 -- terrible, but still a far cry from the Depression, when roughly 25 percent of Americans were out of work.
That is little solace for Gary Cope, who lost his communications job this week at the high-tech research and development company Luna Innovations Inc. in Roanoke.
As Cope, 33, walked out the door with a box of his belongings and about two months' severance, all he could think was, "I have a 3-year-old son and I'm a single dad."
"I came home and did my initial pity party, then I got myself together, talked to my family and went right to work" rewriting his résumé and sending it out, Cope said. Staff writer Emily C. Dooley, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News contributed to this report.
Richmond International Airport (RIC), the gateway to Virginia's Capital Region, plays a vital role in the Central Virginia regional economy. RIC and its tenants contribute annual sales of more than $800 million to the local economy based on the measurable benefits of airport operations, business efficiencies, visitor spending, and their associated ripple effects. The airport also plays an important role in attracting economic development and supporting world-class business operations.
13 months ago, it was 5.25%; analyst expects another cut in December
Written by Carol Hazard of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Read the full article.
...
The Federal Open Market Committee, in its statement yesterday, said the financial turmoil is likely to curtail consumer and business spending.
"The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures," according to the statement.
The Fed also noted that growth might not be as good as previously expected and a lot of uncertainty remains in the outlook, said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.
The expectation is the Fed will reduce the federal funds rate by another half a percentage point when it meets again Dec. 16, Chmura said.
The last time the rate fell below 1 percent was in 1958, when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.
"A reduced rate takes nine months to a year to filter through the economy," Chmura said. "Most economists expect the recession to last through the third quarter of next year."
Over the past 13 months, the Fed has cut the federal funds rate from 5.25 percent to 1 percent. "It has been very aggressive in easing [rates] and that should have some impact on the economy," Chmura said.
The Fed's action should help keep adjustable rate mortgages low, notably those tied to Treasury rates, she said.
People buying cars also should see lower interest rates, although credit is more difficult to obtain. "Those with good credit should be able to make purchases at lower rates," Chmura said.
The stock market responded by bouncing up and down yesterday, although not as wildly as in previous days, before two of the major indexes wound up slightly lower.
The job losses across Virginia also affect other businesses, which in turn could lead to more layoffs.
For every job lost at the Qimonda plant, for instance, about 1.4 other jobs could be affected among various vendors, contractors and suppliers of the company, according to an analysis by Chmura Economics and Analytics, a Richmond-based research firm.
An additional job could be lost in consumer service industries such as restaurants and retailers, the research firm said.
Qimonda said it plans to lay off 1,200 workers, or about 40 percent of the plant's employees, by January as it shuts down a production line for 200 mm memory chip wafers. It has said it will keep open its production of 300 mm wafers.
The multiplier effect of job losses on the economy is higher for high-tech manufacturers -- especially for semiconductor plants like Qimonda -- because they tend to have a network of suppliers and pay high wages, Chmura Economics said. Qimonda declined to provide salary information, but the average annual pay for the semiconductor industry is more than $60,000, the economics firm said.
"Clearly, whenever you have layoffs, you see a pullback on spending on other discretionary items such as eating out or going to movies, so I would expect that to have an impact on the retail sector and services," said Christine Chmura, an economist and the firm's president.
For instance, Woolfolk, who operated production machinery that made liquid-holding cartons at Evergreen, said he and his wife never led an extravagant lifestyle. What they do for fun has virtually stopped.
Does this turmoil threaten the safety of insured deposits at commercial banks?
No. Concerns about financial weakness at a California savings bank, IndyMac, triggered a run by depositors in July, and the number of bank failures so far this year has been climbing. However, the FDIC has stepped in to protect insured deposits.
Financial advisers and those familiar with bank conditions insist that deposits of up to $100,000 per account remain secure. It's possible to have more than $100,000 of insured deposits in a single bank by checking with the institution, said Bruce Whitehurst, president of the Virginia Bankers Association.
Savers concerned about insurance limits on deposits or about the financial condition of a particular bank can find information on the FDIC's Web site, www.fdic.gov.
How will this affect individuals hoping to borrow?
If you want a business loan, a car loan, a home loan, a student loan or virtually any other kind of loan, banks are hesitant to lend, lest they wind up with more bad loans.
"Interest rates might be a little bit higher, especially for individuals who don't have stellar credit," said Christine Chmura, president of the Richmond forecasting firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.
…
What led to the problems at Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch?
A. Many of the large banks and brokerage firms that packaged and sold mortgage-backed securities aren't sure what the securities still on their books are worth. That problem is complicated by Wall Street's growing uncertainty over how much particular banks and brokerage firms would owe one another if one of them defaulted, Spiers of Waypoint Advisors said.
A recovery in the nation's housing market would help. One source of the problems afflicting giant banks and brokerage firms was overbuilding in housing, Chmura, the Richmond economist, said. "The housing sector is not going to pick up until the inventory is worked off."
In some parts of the country that witnessed explosive building activity earlier in the decade, falling prices have already begun to reduce the inventories, she said.
With the U.S. economy getting pounded on multiple fronts, economist Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics and Analytics and Dean Croushore, associate economics professor at the University of Richmond's Robins School of Business and interim director of the Real-Time Data Research Center at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, weighed in yesterday on the potential damage.
Q. What does the turmoil in the financial sector mean for the economy?
A. Chmura: The latest turmoil in the financial sector means the credit crunch will remain with us for some time. It will be harder for borrowers who have imperfect credit records to get loans, and those loans may have higher interest rates to compensate for the higher risk.
A. Croushore: There will be some negative fallout from the demise of investment firms, but the impact on the economy would be far worse if a large commercial bank failed.
Q. Are we heading toward a recession?
A. Chmura: Based on contracting employment and slower personal income growth, the nation has been in a recession since the beginning of the year. The latest financial turmoil make it more likely that the recession will continue through the end of this year.
A. Croushore: Most likely, we are, just looking at the labor market. We've never had a time when unemployment rose so much without it being a recession.
Q. What are the implications for Virginia and the Richmond area?
A. Chmura: Like the nation, Virginia and Richmond will see slower-to-contracting economic growth. Given the importance of the financial industry in Richmond, its economy may start to slow a bit faster than the state.
Q. What might the Federal Reserve do to stabilize the economy?
A. Croushore: They're certainly going to be thinking a lot about whether they need to intervene. The Federal Open Market Committee [which meets today] could cut the federal funds target rate, which impacts interest rates, if a crisis arises in the credit market. If access to credit dries up, that could make it much worse.
Q: How worried should the average homeowner, investor and worker be?
A. Chmura: The average person should not stay awake at night worrying about the fallout from the Lehman bankruptcy and Merrill sale. It will take longer for the economy to recover from these events, but two years from now we'll be talking about how resilient the national economy was in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy.
A. Croushore: You should be nervous, but this is the reason why in your personal portfolio, you shouldn't take a lot of risk. Taking some risk is fine, but if you overdo it and the risks don't work out, you run into trouble. -- Emily C. Dooley and Carol Hazard
Thanks for supporting the National MS-Society during our August 16 – 17 ride from Cleveland Ohio to Sandusky. With your help, Cycle Times raised a total of $6,965! Below are some of our team photos.
WILLIAMSBURG - Visitor spending associated with the 400th anniversary of Jamestown's settlement generated more than $1 billion in statewide sales last year, according to a new report.
Jamestown 2007, a sub-agency of the Jamestown-Yorktown Foundation, commissioned Chmura Economics & Analytics to conduct a fiscal impact study of the anniversary. The final report was released Tuesday.
The 400th anniversary was observed through 18 months of events and programs that culminated in May 2007 with a visit by Queen Elizabeth II of England and America's Anniversary Weekend festivities attended by President Bush.
According to the Richmond firm's research, a total of $1.2 billion in sales was generated throughout Virginia in conjunction with anniversary celebrations.
That figure includes $172.8 million in direct visitor spending at commemoration events, $566 million in facilities improvements and event staging and other indirect, or "ripple effect" spending, said Linda Stanier, a Jamestown 2007 spokeswoman.
Anniversary-related spending produced about $22 million in tax revenue to the state and about $6.4 million for local governments, the report stated.
In addition, the celebrations created more than 20,000 jobs, according to the report. Stanier said the full- and part-time jobs consisted of permanent, temporary and seasonal positions, but she was unable to provide a break down.
During 2006 and 2007, national and international interest in the 400th anniversary generated more than 12 billion Jamestown references in various media, including Web sites. That exposure contributed to a boost in attendance at Historic Triangle establishments of 30 percent to 60 percent during 2007, the report stated.
Even though the nation's flagging economy has diminished tourism-related figures for 2008, officials are still hopeful gains from the 400th anniversary will produce long-term benefits.
"No one has a crystal ball with so many factors involved," Stanier said.
"People are looking at things in different ways and are making different choices. It's going to change — tomorrow, I hope. I do believe a new perception of Jamestown and the role Virginia played will continue to reap benefits in many different ways."
For the second year running, Ohio has two cities among the nation's poorest. According to U.S. Census numbers, almost 30 percent of Clevelanders lived in poverty last year, making it the second poorest city, Cincinnati comes in tenth with almost 24 percent poor. The unfortunate ranking isn't new, nor is the cause. Economist Chris Chmura, publisher of "Ohio Economic Trends," says former industrial cities hit hard by the auto industry and sub prime loan crisis have to wise up -- fast.
CHMURA: “Knowledge-intensive industries are those that are growing at a faster pace, and paying higher wages. The Cleveland area has not transitioned as quickly as some other areas of the country.”
Chmura says the Census report focused only on the cities, but Cuyahoga county’s employment rate also has declined steadily since 2000—and more bad numbers are certain from 2008.
However, the economist says Cleveland has strong institutions like the Cleveland Clinic, museums and its sports teams that should buy the city time to make an economic comeback.
Within five years, housing prices should stabilize and jobs should return.
"By 2013, you should be feeling pretty good about economic growth," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond.
Inflation likely would level off to a safe 2 percent annual rate, well below the 5.6 percent reported for July because of higher transportation, food and energy prices.
Signs of a rebound in the housing market should come near the end of 2009, she said.
Jobs lost during the slowdown should return after that. By 2011, the economy should pick up speed followed by two years of economic growth, Chmura said.
The America’s 400th Anniversary: Jamestown 2007 Commemoration was a series of events spanning 18 months, highlighting the 400th anniversary of Jamestown’s establishment as the first permanent English settlement in North America. The Commemoration activities were coordinated by Jamestown 2007, a sub-agency of the Jamestown- Yorktown Foundation. The series of events included 13 Signature Events staged by Jamestown 2007, highlighted by America’s Anniversary Weekend in May 2007. Additional events included those organized by other agencies or institutions in partnership with Jamestown 2007, as well as hundreds of community events staged by local organizations throughout Virginia. These events attracted more than three million participants, including visitors from Virginia and from outside the state and the country.
The Commemoration was a public-private sector effort that involved 10 years of planning and development. To organize the events and prepare for the influx of visitors, the Commonwealth of Virginia, communities, businesses and institutions around the state, invested millions of dollars to improve roads, refurbish historic buildin
