Update 1/24/2012 1:33 PM EST: A full copy of the report can be found here: http://www.transportation.virginia.gov/initiatives/R460_EconomicImpact.pdf
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEJanuary 24, 2012
Contact: Christine Chmura, Ph.D.Phone: (804) 649-3640Email: Chris.Chmura@chmuraecon.com
NEW ROUTE 460 WILL GENERATE BILLIONS IN JOBS AND BUSINESS
RICHMOND - The proposed Route 460 highway corridor between Hampton Roads and Petersburg will do more than shave drive time for motorists.
It will also inject billions of dollars into the region and create jobs in construction, services, manufacturing, and at the Port of Virginia, said Virginia Secretary of Transportation Sean Connaughton in announcing the results of an economic impact study of the highway project.
The study was performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics, which has offices in Richmond and Cleveland.
“This new road is one of the most significant transportation infrastructure enhancements Virginia has seen in years,” said Connaughton. “Everyone will benefit, both from a safer and faster new road to the huge economic impact this project will have.”
The proposed $1.6-billion corridor will run through the counties of Prince George, Sussex, Southampton and Isle of Wight, and the city of Suffolk, directly linking Interstate 295 in Petersburg to the area around the Port of Virginia in Suffolk. The 55-mile, four-lane highway would run parallel and south of the existing Route 460.
After the project is finished, the total annual impact of the Route 460 Corridor Improvement Project is estimated at $7.3 billion through the generation of business and thousands of jobs, according to the economic analysis performed for the Commonwealth.
Hampton Roads will benefit from a $5.7-billion economic boost annually, while the corridor region will see a $2.5 billion infusion. Overall, the project can support more than 14,000 new jobs in 2020 and beyond.
Additionally, the road will help the Port of Virginia compete with Ports of Savannah and Charleston for fast-growing North Carolina markets such as Charlotte and Raleigh, and solidify its competitive advantages over these Southeast seaports.
Businesses such as hotels, gas stations, retail stores, and restaurants will spring up around interstate interchanges to better server motorists and local residents.
And the new Route 460 could accelerate the development of the two manufacturing “mega sites” in the counties of Isle of Wight and Sussex.
When the project is complete in 2020, the Commonwealth will receive nearly $60 million in sales, gas, corporate and individual income taxes. Local governments along the corridor will get annual tax benefits totaling $3.7 million starting in 2020 in the form of sales, meal, lodging and other forms of tax revenue.
“This is going to be a much faster and more efficient highway than the existing Route 460. It will have shoulders, medians and divided sections that the current road doesn’t have,” said Secretary Connaughton.
“As a result, everyone will get to where they’re going quicker - a straight shot,” he said. “That’s going to help motorists any time of the day. It will make it more attractive for businesses thinking about locating here and it will generate new business around the interchanges as well. It’s a win-win.”
This article was originally published in the Richmond Times-Dispatch on 1/2/2012.
During the past couple of months, several non-economists have mentioned to me that they have this feeling that the Richmond region's economy is getting ready to take off.
I typically tell them that the numbers simply don't support that sentiment.
The region's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.6 percent in October, compared with a 6.4 percent rate for Virginia. (The jobless rates for the Richmond metro area and other regions of the state for November are to be released Wednesday.)
The region's employment in October fell 0.7 percent from a year ago. The state gained 0.6 percent in total employment.
Some say the Richmond metropolitan area didn't do that bad during the recession once the unusual amount of corporate bankruptcies that affected the region are accounted for.
I tested that logic by taking out about 4,500 jobs when Circuit City, Qimonda and LandAmerica shut down in 2008 and 2009.
By doing that, the metro area employment contracted 5.6 percent from its peak in September 2007 through October. But by including those job losses, the region saw a 6.3 percent contraction, or a total of about 40,000 jobs, since the peak.
That compares with an employment contraction of 3.7 percent in the state from its peak in April 2008 and 4.8 percent in the nation from its peak in January 2008.
Richmond's dependence on the finance, insurance and real estate industries drove employment numbers lower than in the nation even when the large bankrupt firms are excluded.
Where is the optimism coming from?
The doubling in employment at Fort Lee is one obvious reason for optimism. The expansion of Rolls-Royce, a well-known, high-quality firm, into the area is another reason for confidence. Both expansions are likely to draw additional businesses to the region.
Aside from those events, the city of Richmond has become more vibrant over the past decade.
Buildings that have been renovated into apartments and condominiums have brought activity to downtown Richmond that is making it a more enticing place to visit than just on weekends. For instance, the first phase of the $70 million project to convert the former Hotel John Marshall into the Residences at the John Marshall apartments is completed, after five years in the making.
Even though the region's dependence on finance, insurance and real estate hampered the area during the past recession, its mix of industries is favorable for future growth.
Chmura Economics & Analytics forecasts that the region will add nearly 75,000 jobs during the next 10 years, which translates into a growth rate of 1.2 percent per year compared with a 0.9 percent per year in the nation.
In fact, the Richmond metro area is likely to grow faster than the Chmura forecast because our report did not take into account the recent announcement that Amazon.com Inc. will open two huge distribution centers in Chesterfield and Dinwiddie counties, creating 1,350 jobs. Nor does the report account for the impact from hosting the Road World Championships cycling race in 2015.
After acknowledging Richmond's recent losses and subpar growth, I conclude that there are a lot of reasons we should expect Richmond's economy to take off during the next decade.
Update 11/30/2011: This study has been completed and can be downloaded here: The Socioeconomic Impact of Uranium Mining and Milling in the Chatham Labor Shed, Virginia. Read more about Chmura Economics & Analytics.
Original Post 12/9/2010:
On December 8th, Virginia selected Chmura Economics & Analytics to perform a socio-economic study on uranium mining in Virginia. Below are some press clippings of the announcement:
Bloomberg.com (via Associated Press) - Va. company to assess uranium mining impact
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — A company that has studied the economic impact of highway investments and airports will turn its focus to uranium mining in Virginia under a $200,000 socio-economic study commissioned by the state. A legislative subcommittee on Wednesday unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics of Richmond from among five other consulting groups that made presentations. The Chmura study will analyze the possible consequences on home prices, wages, tax revenues and other issues related to mining a 119-million-pound uranium deposit in Southside Virginia. ... read more
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — A company that has studied the economic impact of highway investments and airports will turn its focus to uranium mining in Virginia under a $200,000 socio-economic study commissioned by the state.
A legislative subcommittee on Wednesday unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics of Richmond from among five other consulting groups that made presentations.
The Chmura study will analyze the possible consequences on home prices, wages, tax revenues and other issues related to mining a 119-million-pound uranium deposit in Southside Virginia.
... read more
GoDanRiver.com - Richmond firm chosen for uranium study
RICHMOND — A Richmond firm well-known for conducting economic impact analyses in Virginia will conduct the study assessing the socioeconomic impacts of uranium mining around Coles Hill in Pittsylvania County. On Wednesday, the Uranium Mining Subcommittee of the Virginia Coal and Energy Commission unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics — one of six firms vying for the project. “It’s a very important project,” said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist. “It can make a huge difference to the economy in Pittsylvania County if the ore is mined, but it can also have a huge adverse impact if it cannot be mined safely.” Subcommittee member Sen. John Watkins moved to name Chmura as the vendor for the $200,000 study, based on his readings of the firm’s other analyses and Chmura’s reputation to deliver unbiased analysis. ... Leslie Peterson, partner at Chmura, said the study goes beyond more business for the firm. “It’s because we live and work and have our families in Virginia,” Peterson said. “We’re committed to seeing the best socioeconomic impact study delivered to the residents of the commonwealth.” ... read more
RICHMOND — A Richmond firm well-known for conducting economic impact analyses in Virginia will conduct the study assessing the socioeconomic impacts of uranium mining around Coles Hill in Pittsylvania County.
On Wednesday, the Uranium Mining Subcommittee of the Virginia Coal and Energy Commission unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics — one of six firms vying for the project.
“It’s a very important project,” said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist. “It can make a huge difference to the economy in Pittsylvania County if the ore is mined, but it can also have a huge adverse impact if it cannot be mined safely.”
Subcommittee member Sen. John Watkins moved to name Chmura as the vendor for the $200,000 study, based on his readings of the firm’s other analyses and Chmura’s reputation to deliver unbiased analysis.
...
Leslie Peterson, partner at Chmura, said the study goes beyond more business for the firm.
“It’s because we live and work and have our families in Virginia,” Peterson said. “We’re committed to seeing the best socioeconomic impact study delivered to the residents of the commonwealth.”
Chris Chmura was recently interviewed by WHSV:
Great article in the Columbus Dispatch about the potential of Sears moving to Columbus. JobsEQ data and analytics were utilized in this report. Our basic economic impact model, desirability index, and several workforce alignment analytics were utilized to show that Colubmus is quite competitive to win the re-location of Sears HQ.
Read the full article.
The Daily News-Record covered the recenet economic summit at Bridgewater College. Chris Chmura, one of the panelists, was quoted:
Although the recession officially ended in June 2009, tight credit markets and an explosion in home foreclosures have compounded the sluggish growth rate, Chmura explained. She doesn’t expect employment levels to swing back to pre-recession levels until 2015, the year today’s freshmen will graduate. In July, the Harrisonburg metropolitan area’s unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, tied for 34th lowest out of 372 metro areas nationwide. Still, five years ago the local jobless rate was just 2.9 percent. Chmura said higher education is still a worthwhile investment, but not all degrees or occupations are equal. For example, there’s a glut of marketing majors, but a growing need for registered nurses in Virginia. “You really need to know your options,” Chmura said. “Is the occupation that you’re going into in demand? Is it in demand in your region?”
Although the recession officially ended in June 2009, tight credit markets and an explosion in home foreclosures have compounded the sluggish growth rate, Chmura explained.
She doesn’t expect employment levels to swing back to pre-recession levels until 2015, the year today’s freshmen will graduate.
In July, the Harrisonburg metropolitan area’s unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, tied for 34th lowest out of 372 metro areas nationwide. Still, five years ago the local jobless rate was just 2.9 percent.
Chmura said higher education is still a worthwhile investment, but not all degrees or occupations are equal. For example, there’s a glut of marketing majors, but a growing need for registered nurses in Virginia.
“You really need to know your options,” Chmura said. “Is the occupation that you’re going into in demand? Is it in demand in your region?”
Read the full article (subscription required)
Governor Bob McDonnell issued the following statement this morning following the announcement in Copenhagen that Richmond has been selected to serve as host city for the 2015 World Road Cycling Championships.
“I want to congratulate Richmond Mayor Dwight Jones, Tim Miller of Richmond 2015 and all the public and private sector individuals and groups who played a role in securing this major sporting event for Richmond and central Virginia. This international competition will spur economic activity in the state and help grow our economy. An economic impact study conducted by Chmura Economics & Analytics found that the 2015 World Road Cycling Championships is projected to generate more than $86 million within the City of Richmond and a total of $135 million for the entire Commonwealth. 500,000 spectators are expected to attend the nine-day event, with another 300 million tuning in to watch from all across the world. That all adds up to booked hotel rooms, busy restaurants, and priceless global marketing opportunities for the city and the Commonwealth.
Today’s selection follows yesterday’s announcement that 2010 saw record international tourism spending in Virginia. Clearly, the Commonwealth is expanding its presence on the global stage, to the benefit of job creation and economic growth here at home. Our Administration is committed to keeping this momentum going through working with localities on projects such as this one, aggressively pitching Virginia businesses and products to overseas markets and consumers, opening trade offices in England, India and China and constantly looking for every opportunity to tell the world about our “Commonwealth of Opportunity.” This is a great step forward in that endeavor. Again, I congratulate Mayor Jones and everyone involved for their tremendous success in landing this prestigious event for the Commonwealth of Virginia.”
Update 9/22/2011:
The economic impact study performed by Chmura has been mentioned on several other sites, including:
A recent report created by Chmura Economics & Analytics was featured in the Richmond Times-Dispatch article Study: Housing Trust Fund would help boost Virginia's economy:
The creation of a housing trust fund would help boost Virginia's economy, according to a report released Thursday by Chmura Economics & Analytics. The study shows that a Virginia Housing Trust Fund — a fund for affordable housing — would inject $1 billion into the economy during a 10-year period and support 1,778 jobs in Virginia. Economist Christine Chmura presented the findings Thursday to about 50 housing advocates and state representatives at a breakfast meeting at the downtown SunTrust branch. She summarized the findings for the media during a telephone news conference. The study assumes a $10 million a year investment for 10 years from the state, which must be approved by the General Assembly. The creation of a trust fund has been bandied about for years but has not yet won approval. About 40 states have similar funds.
The creation of a housing trust fund would help boost Virginia's economy, according to a report released Thursday by Chmura Economics & Analytics.
The study shows that a Virginia Housing Trust Fund — a fund for affordable housing — would inject $1 billion into the economy during a 10-year period and support 1,778 jobs in Virginia.
Economist Christine Chmura presented the findings Thursday to about 50 housing advocates and state representatives at a breakfast meeting at the downtown SunTrust branch. She summarized the findings for the media during a telephone news conference.
The study assumes a $10 million a year investment for 10 years from the state, which must be approved by the General Assembly.
The creation of a trust fund has been bandied about for years but has not yet won approval. About 40 states have similar funds.
Chris Chmura was quoted in the Richmond Times-Dispatch article, State's jobless rate rises slightly in July, as economy continues to struggle:
Virginia lost 47,800 jobs last month, underscoring the slow and uncertain economy in the state and across the nation. Seven of 11 major industry sectors lost jobs, pushing up the state unemployment rate to 6.1 percent in July from 6.0 percent in June, according to a report released Friday by the Virginia Employment Commission. "Overall, the report depicts an economy that continues to struggle," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "This is a slow recovery. Most major sectors contracted in July." The slight bump in the seasonally adjusted rate is the first increase in Virginia since the peak rate of 7.2 percent in February 2010. The state rate was better than it was in the same month a year ago, when it was 6.8 percent, and remains lower than the national rate, which fell 0.1 percentage point in July to 9.1 percent. "The good news is our unemployment rate is 3 percentage points below the nation, but that is not encouraging for people who can't find jobs in our state," Chmura said. "Even though the rate rose slightly in July, the number of people working contracted for the second month in a row," she said. "We are still seeing an increase in the number of people dropping out of the labor market because they can't find jobs."
Virginia lost 47,800 jobs last month, underscoring the slow and uncertain economy in the state and across the nation.
Seven of 11 major industry sectors lost jobs, pushing up the state unemployment rate to 6.1 percent in July from 6.0 percent in June, according to a report released Friday by the Virginia Employment Commission.
"Overall, the report depicts an economy that continues to struggle," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "This is a slow recovery. Most major sectors contracted in July."
The slight bump in the seasonally adjusted rate is the first increase in Virginia since the peak rate of 7.2 percent in February 2010.
The state rate was better than it was in the same month a year ago, when it was 6.8 percent, and remains lower than the national rate, which fell 0.1 percentage point in July to 9.1 percent.
"The good news is our unemployment rate is 3 percentage points below the nation, but that is not encouraging for people who can't find jobs in our state," Chmura said.
"Even though the rate rose slightly in July, the number of people working contracted for the second month in a row," she said. "We are still seeing an increase in the number of people dropping out of the labor market because they can't find jobs."
The recent Associated Press article, Dominion study: Projects generate billions for Va., feature a study performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics:
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Dominion Virginia Power generation and conversion projects will produce more than $3.3 billion in economic benefits by 2015, a study released Monday by the utility concludes. The nine projects, some of which date to 2007, will support more than 14,200 construction jobs through 2015, according to Chmura Economics & Analytics, the Richmond company that conducted the study. Dominion Virginia is a unit of Dominion Resources Inc. Once the projects are completed, they will produce annual economic benefits totaling more than $290 million and support more than 750 jobs, the study said. David A. Christian, CEO of Dominion generation, said the investments represent "some of the most significant construction efforts in our history to meet the present and future energy needs of the commonwealth." "They will help power Virginia's economic recovery, in addition to meeting the growing demand for electricity for homes and businesses and improving environmental quality," Christian said in a statement.
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Dominion Virginia Power generation and conversion projects will produce more than $3.3 billion in economic benefits by 2015, a study released Monday by the utility concludes.
The nine projects, some of which date to 2007, will support more than 14,200 construction jobs through 2015, according to Chmura Economics & Analytics, the Richmond company that conducted the study.
Dominion Virginia is a unit of Dominion Resources Inc.
Once the projects are completed, they will produce annual economic benefits totaling more than $290 million and support more than 750 jobs, the study said.
David A. Christian, CEO of Dominion generation, said the investments represent "some of the most significant construction efforts in our history to meet the present and future energy needs of the commonwealth."
"They will help power Virginia's economic recovery, in addition to meeting the growing demand for electricity for homes and businesses and improving environmental quality," Christian said in a statement.
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