A study performed by Chmura Economics was featured in a recent Richmond Times-Dispatch article:

Rebuilding 11 bridges on Interstate 95 in Richmond and Henrico County will cost taxpayers about $15 million less than the Virginia Department of Transportation expected.

The Commonwealth Transportation Board awarded a $68 million contract yesterday to Archer Western Contractors of Atlanta to rebuild the aging spans.

"It's going to cost us about $15 million less than we budgeted," said Thomas A. Hawthorne, VDOT's Richmond District administrator.

"Contractors are looking for work," he said, "and we're getting a pattern of reasonably good prices on projects."

Beginning this fall and working at night, Archer Western will start work to replace the spans along 7 miles of I-95 between Lombardy Street in Richmond and Upham Brook in Henrico.

"This project will help ensure that traffic can move safely and efficiently through the commonwealth for decades to come," Gov. Bob McDonnell said in a statement yesterday.

VDOT expects construction to be finished in 2014.

The contractor will do the work in phases. For the first two years, the state said, crews will be working under the bridges, resulting in occasional lane closures and detours.

Beginning in 2012, workers will replace each bridge span by span with new, prefabricated sections. Archer Western has experience with the system, which it used as the contractor on the I-95 James River Bridge reconstruction 10 years ago.

"VDOT is committed to keeping traffic moving through Richmond for the duration of this project," Hawthorne said.

While replacing bridge spans, the contractor will close lanes and shift traffic on I-95, but the work will be done between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. to minimize traffic tie-ups.

During the overnight construction, VDOT will keep open an emergency vehicle lane and one travel lane in each direction.

The bridges should be in full operation before morning rush hour, and daytime travelers on I-95 should have all lanes of travel available.

Up to 160,000 vehicles a day use this section of I-95, VDOT said, and about 60,000 vehicles travel the stretch during the 8 p.m.-6 a.m. period.

VDOT will use electronic message boards, highway advisory radio, the 511 system, local media and the Internet to keep travelers informed about planned activities and traffic impacts.

According to an economic-impact study by Chmura Economics and Analytics, the project will generate a one-time economic impact of up to $166 million for Richmond and Henrico as project contractors and their subcontractors patronize area businesses.

The project also will bring about 150 jobs each year to the region as a direct result of the construction, as well as an additional 100 jobs annually as an economic ripple effect.

"This project will complete the rehabilitation of all the mainline bridges on the old Richmond-Petersburg Turnpike," which opened more than 50 years ago, Hawthorne said. "We should get another 50 to 70 years out of these bridges with this work."

In that time, VDOT's maintenance cost savings on the bridges could reach nearly $10 million, the economic-impact study said.

Governor McDonnell Announces Approval from Transportation Board for $68 Million Contract to Restore 11 Bridges Along I-95

RICHMOND- Governor Bob McDonnell announced that the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) awarded a contract today valued at approximately $68 million for restoration of 11 bridges along the Interstate 95 corridor in Richmond. The contract advances a long-awaited rehabilitation of major I-95 bridges.

Speaking about the contract, Governor McDonnell noted, “Our investments in transportation continue to have significant impacts. This project will help ensure that traffic can move safely and efficiently through the Commonwealth for decades to come, and improve the quality of life for all who live, work and travel through Virginia.”

Archer Western Contractors of Atlanta, Georgia was awarded the contract to restore 11 bridges and overpasses in Richmond along the east coast’s most heavily traveled north/south highway, I-95. The project will involve replacing bridges along a seven-mile stretch of I-95 between Lombardy Street in the city of Richmond and Upham Brook in Henrico County. Construction will begin in the fall and is expected to be complete in 2014.

The following bridges will be restored:

• Lombardy Street/CSX railroad
• Overbrook Road
• Sherwood Avenue
• Robin Hood Road
• Hermitage Road
• I-95 over the Boulevard
• Ramp over the Boulevard
• Westwood Avenue
• Laburnum Avenue
• Upham Brook northbound (Henrico)
• Upham Brook southbound
• (Henrico)

Reducing Driver Impacts

The four-year project will be completed in multiple phases. The first two years of the project will involve repair and restoration activities under each bridge. This will result in periodic, overnight lane closures and detours on Richmond city streets.

Beginning in 2012, contractors will replace each bridge span with a new, prefabricated section. This will involve scheduled traffic pattern shifts and overnight lane closures along I-95. To avoid major traffic disruptions, I-95 construction will occur between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. 

During overnight construction on I-95, VDOT will maintain one travel lane in each direction and one emergency vehicle lane. Crews will remove and replace segments of bridges in overnight hours, and will return the bridges to full operation before morning rush hour each day. Daytime travelers along I-95 will continue to have all lanes of travel available.

“VDOT is committed to keeping traffic moving through Richmond for the duration of this project,” said VDOT Richmond District Administrator, Tom Hawthorne. “We will use a variety of methods such as 511, electronic message boards, highway advisory radio, local media and the Internet to keep travelers informed of all planned activities and traffic impacts from this work.”

Benefits

The bridge restorations will not only improve the safety for drivers using these critical structures along the I-95 corridor, but the construction project will also result in a significant economic benefit to the region. According to a 2010 economic impact study conducted by Chmura Economics and Analytics, the project is expected to:

• Generate a one-time economic impact to Richmond and Henrico County of up to $166 million when project contractors and their sub-contractors patronize area businesses
• Bring approximately 150 jobs each year to the region as a direct result of the construction for a total of more than 500 jobs. An additional 100 jobs are expected per year as an economic ripple effect.
• Extend the lifespan of the bridges for 50 to 75 years. In that timeframe, the total maintenance cost savings for VDOT could reach nearly $10 million.
• Generate $2.3 million in tax revenue for the commonwealth during construction and fiscal benefits for local governments of $200,000 from 2010 to 2014.

In 1999, VDOT restored two of 13 bridges along I-95 as part of an initiative to improve bridge integrity along the corridor—the James River and Broad Street bridges. Routine maintenance and repairs continued on the remaining 11 bridges while funds accumulated for the project. The project is fully funded in the Fiscal Years 2011-2016 Six-Year Improvement Program using a combination of federal and state transportation funds.

For additional project information and to review the economic impact study, visit http://i95bridges.org

For more information on the meeting and other CTB actions, visit http://www.ctb.virginia.gov/meetings.asp. 

By Doug Manners

HARRISONBURG - A subgroup of Gov. Bob McDonnell's Economic Development and Jobs Creation Committee met Wednesday in Harrisonburg to discuss how to ensure that Virginia has a work force that matches opportunities for employees with the needs of employers in the future.

The work force development subgroup spent four hours at National College's Harrisonburg campus listening to three presentations and discussing strategies that will be submitted later this month to Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, the state's chief jobs creation officer and the committee's co-chairman.

...

Also serving on the subgroup with the task of helping to answer that question is: chairman Bob Leber, who retired recently as director of education and work force development at Northrop Grumman; James W. Dyke, partner at the law firm of McGuireWoods and secretary of education under Gov. Douglas Wilder; Helen Dragas, president and CEO of the Dragas Companies; Christine Chmura, president and chief economist of Chmura Economics and Analytics; and Del. Kathy Byron, R-Lynchburg, co-owner of B&B Presentations. Byron was absent from Wednesday's meeting.

Work force development is one of nine subgroups on the Economic Development and Jobs Creation Committee, which McDonnell created with his first executive order on inauguration day. The committee includes Cabinet secretaries, legislators and business leaders from across the state.

Matching Degrees, Jobs

Developing a strategy to increase the number of Virginians who earn higher-education degrees created the most discussion among subgroup members Wednesday.

During his campaign, McDonnell said he planned to commit Virginia to awarding 100,000 additional four-year and community college degrees in the next 15 years.

But the solution to creating an adaptable work force requires more than just an influx of college graduates, Chmura noted. The key, she said, is producing more graduates with degrees in growing fields.

"We have to create degrees in the direction that the jobs are going," Dyke said in agreement. "That'll give [people] even more incentive to get a degree."

Chmura alluded to the ACT's 2009 college and career readiness report, which showed that job openings and students' interests don't coincide in Virginia. For example, computer/information specialties had the most projected job openings, but only 3 percent of students identified that as a career interest.

"There's a mismatch there," Chmura said.

...

Read the full article

A recent godanriver.com article by Tara Bozick covers an impact study performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics:

Danville Regional Medical Center released a report Tuesday that concluded a competitor’s proposed ambulatory surgery center in Danville would hurt the hospital — and the Dan River Region’s economy.

CEO Eric Deaton of Danville Regional hired Chmura Economics & Analytics to complete an economic impact study to assess the role DRMC plays in the local and state economy.

Deaton said he wanted to better understand the hospital’s economic impact as he will serve as a member of the state’s seven-member Hospital and Healthcare advisory group to the Jobs Creation Commission established by Gov. Bob McDonnell.

“I think it’s important to give a perspective of what’s important to Southside Virginia and the role health care plays in that,” Deaton said.

The study also evaluated how the introduction of an outpatient surgical center to Danville would affect the hospital.

The report did not name the competitor, yet Lynchburg-based Centra proposes to build a medical complex with two outpatient operating rooms, a freestanding emergency department and diagnostic imaging in Danville. Centra awaits a decision from the state health commissioner on whether it will receive a Certificate of Public Need for the outpatient operating rooms.

Centra says its center would help the economy by bringing patients back to Danville and that the report rehashes Danville Regional’s recurring argument, but doesn’t take into account how the hospital negatively impacted itself in the past five years.

Danville Regional employs a quarter of the region’s health care work force and contributed an estimated $189 million in spending and employment to the Danville metro statistical area in 2009, the report stated. Those direct impacts and “ripple effects” contributed $228.3 million total to the state.

“With the potential entrance of a competitor to the outpatient surgical area, the possible financial impact on Danville Regional could negatively affect the local economy,” said President and Chief Economist Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics.

In 2008, 44 percent of Danville Regional’s gross patient revenue came from gross outpatient revenues, the report stated. The number of outpatient procedures performed at DRMC totaled 4,859 in 2008.

The ambulatory surgery center’s proposed capacity is more than 80 percent of current outpatient surgeries performed at DRMC, the report stated. Even if the competitor brings back people seeking care elsewhere, nothing restricts the center from taking patients from the hospital, which would mean less revenue and possible reductions in services, the report continued.

Centra Executive Vice President Tom Jividen said via e-mail that DRMC is ignoring the damage it’s done to the hospital over the past five years, which resulted in a dramatic decline in surgery volumes.

“During that period, without any competition from Centra, or any other provider, they effectively lost their patient base, their patient loyalty and consequently their surgical volumes,” Jividen said. “Based on our estimates, if we simply returned the community to its 2007 levels we would have a successful surgery program and there would be no impact to DRMC.”

Danville Regional leaders also presented the economic impact report’s findings to community leaders on Tuesday.

“I thought the economic impact was really an eye opener in what it added to the economy and how many jobs were involved,” said Coy Harville, Pittsylvania County supervisor and board chairman of Danville Pittsylvania Regional Industrial Facility Authority.

Harville knows that when industries look to locate somewhere, they want to check out schools and medical facilities. A healthy work force also tops the list, he said.

Harville would need more information to see how competition or Centra’s project would affect the local economy.

“They are a major economic engine in this market,” local businessman Ben Davenport said about DRMC.

As an employer, Davenport wants quality health care at an affordable price for his employees. The quality of the community’s health care provider would significantly impact the success rate of attracting industry and people to the Danville area, he added.

Davenport said he’s confident the state’s Certificate of Public Need program would determine what’s best for the area in regards to Centra’s proposed project.

“All I know is our area needs to have quality health care provided if we are going to be successful going forward in rebuilding this economy,” Davenport said.

Deaton said improving quality of care and outcomes is his primary focus.

Danville Regional’s economic impact (2009 unless noted):

• Total direct, indirect and induced impact of DRMC spending and employment is estimated at $189 million, contributing to 2,081 jobs in the Danville metro area. Its direct, indirect and induced impact on the state is estimated at $228.3 million, contributing to 2,287 jobs.

• DRMC employed 1,475 employees, making it the second largest private employer providing 4 percent of the total work force in the Danville Metropolitan Statistical Area. It provides 5.6 percent of the total work force in Danville.

• DRMC employs more than one quarter of the region’s health care work force, which had 5,291 employees in third quarter 2009.

• Annual revenue for DRMC is estimated at $139.5 million.

• Since 2005, DRMC spent $32.7 million in capital expenditures, which contributed to 246 jobs in the Danville metro area and 358 jobs total for the state.

• DRMC contributed $1.5 million in local tax revenues and $3.4 million in state tax revenues.

• DRMC provided about $3.3 million in charity care.

• In 2008, DRMC provided $1.7 million in charity care and wrote off $18.9 million in bad debt or unpaid health care services. In 2008, DRMC had $136.7 million in total operating revenues and $159 million in total expenditures.

• In 2008, 15.4 percent of all patient days at DRMC were Medicaid patients, compared with an average of 14.1 percent for the southwest region and state average of 12.1 percent.

Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, prepared for DRMC

Read the original article.

A study performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics was recently featured on the Danville Regional Medical Center’s website:

DANVILLE, Va. (June 29, 2010) - Danville Regional Medical Center’s local and regional annual economic impact is estimated to be $189 million in spending that supports 2,032 jobs in the Danville area in 2009, according to a report released today by Chmura Economics & Analytics.  The Danville area consists of the city of Danville and the county of Pittsylvania. 

“The hospital’s operations and capital investments generate significant impact on the local economy, including the support of 5.5% of the total employment in the Danville area.  With the potential entrance of a competitor to the outpatient surgical arena, the possible financial impact on Danville Regional could negatively affect the local economy,” said Chmura Economics & Analytics President and Chief Economist Christine Chmura. 

“With over $32 million in capital expenditures since 2005, Danville Regional’s capital efforts have had a larger impact than just the direct spending, representing direct, indirect and induced spending of over $50 million and 358 jobs, including 246 in this area,” Chmura adds.

Read more at danvillenewsandviews.com

Chris Chmura was featured in a Virginia Business article by Paula Squires:

Virginia’s economy is slowly bouncing back from the recession and at a slightly better pace than the national economy. But headwinds in the form of tight credit, lingering unemployment, home foreclosures and depressed consumer spending are dampening recovery here and across the nation, one of the state’s top economists said Friday. 

“Coming out of a deep recession, you’d think we’d have 3.5 to 4 percent growth in real GDP (gross domestic product). Our projection that is that we’ll see 2.9 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011,” Chris Chmura said during an annual economic forecast done in conjunction with the nonprofit Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy in Springfield.  However, despite such constraints, she’s not expecting a double dip recession.

Chmura, of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond, noted that lower housing values continue to dampen the rebound. “Five years ago, people were refinancing their homes, taking the equity out and spending money. Now houses aren’t worth as much, and they can’t take the equity out. So they feel poor, and they’re not spending as much,” she said. 

In Virginia, on an annual average basis, retail sales dipped 5.4 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. However, they are expected to improve 1.3 percent in 2010 and to expand to 5.1 percent by 2011, according to Chumura’s 2010-11 forecast.

Another drag on the rebound — and one that portends the most damage going forward — is a high unemployment rate and the slow recovery of jobs. When people don’t have jobs or feel uncertain about employment, they pull back on consumer spending, which represents two thirds of the country’s GDP, Chmura said. 

From December 2007 through January 2010, 8.4 million people lost their jobs in America.  If employment expands at a moderate rate of 200,000 jobs a month, it will take 3.5 years to reach pre-recession employment levels, she noted.

The picture is a little better in Virginia. From April 2008 to February 2010, employment dropped by 197,000 jobs, a 5.2 percent drop compared with a 6.1 percent decline in the nation. In May, employment ticked up in Virginia by .1 percent. Growth is expected to accelerate to 0.4 percent in 2010 after receding 3.2 percent in 2009, with a bigger bump, 1.9 percent, in 2011.

By sectors, education and health care continue to add jobs along with the professional business services industry, primarily in Northern Virginia.

Chmura’s report also touched on transportation. She noted that Virginia’s transportation woes, at least in terms of congestion, are mostly limited to the Washington metro area (which includes Northern Virginia), Hampton Roads and Richmond. In 2007, based on a travel time index (from the Texas Transportation Institute and Reason Foundation),  motorists experienced 62 hours of traffic delays in the Washington area, 29 hours in Hampton Roads, and 20 hours in Richmond.

From an economists’ point of view, possible financing solutions to improve Virginia’s transportation network include reducing the number of motorists on the roads by investing more in mass transit or by building more highways with the help of private dollars in public/private partnerships. 

Gov. Bob McDonnell, elected on a platform of not raising any new taxes, is expected to address transportation in 2011.  Michael W. Thompson, president of the Thomas Jefferson Institute, said everything should be on the table when it comes to resolving the long simmering funding issue. “Taxes shouldn’t be off the table, but they shouldn’t be the first thing people turn to,” he said. To see the complete forecast, go to http://www.thomasjeffersoninst.org/files/3/Economic_Forecast_2010.pdf

Chris Chmura, President of Chmura Economics & Analytics, is named to Central Virginia’s think tank that will explore critical issues for the future of the region.

Read more.

Chris Chmura was featured in a Fredericksburg.com article by Chelyen Davis:

Economist Christine Chmura said the recession is over, although recovery will take a while.

She said national economists haven't officially declared an end date for the recession, but "the majority of economists believe [the recession] is over as of the third quarter of 2009."

Chmura was delivering an economic forecast report for the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy in a teleconference that also included business leaders and reporters. She is the president of Richmond-based Chmura Economics and Analytics, and has done economic analyses for state government and other groups.

Chmura predicted the economy will grow at a rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent, lower than might be expected for an economy coming out of a recession. That slowness, she said, is due to "headwinds" that are slowing growth, such as the difficulty of getting credit, especially for businesses, and continued high unemployment.

"We expect that high unemployment rate to come down only slowly over the next couple of years," she said.

Chmura said the national economy lost more than 8 million jobs in the recession, and that if 200,000 jobs are created a month--a rate she thinks is reasonable--it would still take more than three years to regain those lost jobs.

"We do have these factors that are causing the economy to grow at a modest rate, rather than the strong rebound," Chmura said.

She said Virginia's economy is doing slightly better than the national economy.

Jobs in professional business services fields grew 1.4 percent in May, and those are "very good, high-paying jobs," many of which are in Northern Virginia, Chmura said. The education and health jobs sector also has expanded.

She said she expects Virginia's job base "to show tangible improvement" by the end of the year. Chmura said salary and wages should increase in the next two years, but that consumer spending is still low in most areas of Virginia.

The Thomas Jefferson Institute asks Chmura to do an economic report every year, and regularly asks her to also do a survey on a particular policy issue. This year it is transportation.

Read more at fredericksburg.com.

The Obama administration's flagship effort to help people in danger of losing their homes is falling flat.

More than a third of the 1.24 million borrowers who have enrolled in the $75 billion mortgage modification program have dropped out. That exceeds the number of people who have managed to have their loan payments reduced to help them keep their homes.

Last month alone, 155,000 borrowers left the program -- bringing the total to 436,000 who have dropped out since it began in March 2009.

About 340,000 homeowners have received permanent loan modifications and are making payments on time.

Administration officials say those who were rejected from the program will get help in other ways.

But analysts expect the majority will still wind up in foreclosure, and that could slow the broader economic recovery.

"The increasing number of unemployed probably is contributing to the large percentage of dropouts," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.

A major reason so many have fallen out of the program is the Obama administration initially pressured banks to sign up borrowers without insisting first on proof of their income. When banks later moved to collect the information, many troubled homeowners were disqualified or dropped out.

Many borrowers complained that the banks lost their documents. The industry said borrowers weren't sending back the necessary paperwork.

As more people leave the program, a new wave of foreclosures could occur, analysts say. If that happens, it could weaken the housing market.

Original article

Chris Chmura was quoted in a June 18, 2010 article by Danielle Walker of Inside Business.

Hampton Roads has fared better than the national unemployment rate due to a diverse workforce and strong military presence, according to Opportunity Inc.'s 2010 "State of the Workforce" report.

Although the region has not been exempt from workforce trepidation, one economist said these factors lend stability in a stinging job market.

"The presence of the military generally gives the Hampton Roads area stability during the recession," said Christine Chmura, author of the report and president of Chmura Economics and Analytics, a Richmond-based economic consulting firm. "Some of the industries that have been expanding have helped offset declines, for example, shipbuilding. Other sectors that have been growing in Hampton Roads, as well as the nation, are education and health care."

April 2010 statistics showed that the Hampton Roads region had a 7.1 percent unemployment rate. Statewide joblessness was at 6.7 percent, while the national average was at 9.9 percent for the month.

On June 10, Opportunity Inc., a workforce development board that partners with the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, hosted an event at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel to share the report. More than 150 people attended. Edward Gordon, author of "Winning the Global Talent Showdown," was the keynote speaker.

Some improvements were cited between the last workforce report in 2005 and the 2010 report.

In the five-year gap, the ship- and boatbuilding industry gained 762 jobs, creating an annual average gain of 1.3 percent in the region. The national average for the industry showed a 0.4 percent decline.

Other slight gains for the area included a decrease in poverty among the elderly. In 2000, the percentage of elderly living in poverty was at 8.6 percent, and by 2008 the rate had fallen to 7.8 percent in Hampton Roads. The percent of children living in poverty, however, stayed at 14.7 percent over the period.

Chmura said that overall, poverty was down but there were "some outliers" that should be considered, such as increases in certain counties contrasting with significant decreases in others.

High area diversity, and an increase in people receiving college degrees, were also noted in the report.

One area that was mentioned with particular attention to improvement was transportation.

"Some factors that affect growth, or might in the future, include transportation," Chmura said. "That's an area of potential concern. Otherwise the trends, between the current reports and the 2005 report, showed improvement in the Hampton Roads area."

Chmura said that increased congestion could discourage companies from expanding into the area. She also said that the addition of light rail would reduce congestion, although she was not aware of the returns it would gain toward costs.

A rise in the region's dropout rate by 2.3 percent was cited by Chmura as a figure that should be weighed against other factors.

"I don't even know that the small increase is significant," she said. "That could be individuals moving to a different school system."

Robert Sharak, development officer and spokesman for Opportunity Inc., explained the organization's community role and participation in workforce development.

"What's happening is there's a needle-in-a-haystack situation going on," he said. "There are people who have the right qualifications, but finding those applicants in a sea of resumes or finding that individual is a little challenging."

Sharak said that the surplus of people who find themselves out of work for an extended period of time, is an area where Opportunity Inc. can help.

"That's a training and retraining issue," he said. "They need significant retraining in order to be competitive in the market."

In late January, the group organized a job fair that was attended by more than 1,000 people.

The fair was held on the heels of a major layoff at International Paper, when more than 1,000 people were laid off at the IP Franklin plant.

Sharak said Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding - one of several other local companies in attendance - was able to help many jobless residents transition from a period of unemployment into an apprenticeship program.

Opportunity Inc. plans to take recent workforce findings in stride, and keep the ball rolling.

"Now it's a matter of taking the data, and [seeing] how we can work on some of the issues we heard in the report," Sharak said.