The Bluefield Daily Telegraph published a story feature a recent study completed by Chmura Economics & Analytics:

The economy of the seven-county, one-city, Virginia coalfield region, appears to be doing better than the rest of the Commonwealth and even the nation, according to a new report.

The study from Chmura Economics and Analytics found that the region’s current unemployment rate was less than that of the nation during the Great Recession. It also found that the coalfield region of Southwest Virginia is looking better than Virginia as a whole due to several factors, including a still strong coal industry, growth in professional business services and new construction. 

The study further credits several ongoing economic development projects, including a power plant currently under construction in Wise County, and two technology-based companies that have employed several hundred in Russell County.

The study was presented last week at the annual meeting of the executive advisory board of the Virginia Coalfield Economic Development Authority. VCEDA was created by the General Assembly in 1988 to diversify the region’s economy and to create jobs in the so-called e-Region of Southwest Virginia. The agency has focused in recent years on jobs related to information technology, energy, education and emerging technologies in Tazewell, Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, and Wise counties and the city of Norton. Just last year VCEDA approved $8.8 million in loans and grants for economic development projects throughout the seven-county region.

With an average unemployment rate of 8 percent, the seven coalfield counties are doing better than most other counties in the Commonwealth, according to VCEDA Executive Director Jonanathan Belcher. 

“Our region is blessed with the coal and natural gas industries, growth in information technology sector jobs, and the tremendous economic impact of the power plant project in Wise County,” Belcher said last week. “All of these sectors are helping our region at this time, and our region is becoming more diversified.”

It’s good to hear of success stories that are emerging out of the seven-county coalfield region. We’ll take all the good news we can get in the most difficult of economic times.

We are encouraged by the efforts of officials to diversify the local Southwest Virginia economy. 

While it is imperative that we continue first and foremost to support our local coal and natural gas industries, we also must continue to invest in new job creation projects that are supported by the majority of the citizens of the region, including the Bluestone Regional Business and Technology Park project currently under development near Bluefield, Va.

We believe the future of the coalfield region of Southwest Virginia is still bright. We welcome the efforts by VCEDA to promote growth in the energy, information technology, education and emerging technology fields.

Chris Chmura was quoted in a recent article by Olympia Meola:

It takes money to make money.

That's the position of Gov. Bob McDonnell's administration, which, despite a $4 billion budget hole, has put forth a plan for $50 million in new spending, meant to help cut the state's creeping unemployment rate and boost state coffers.

McDonnell's point man on pushing that package through the legislature is Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who will serve as the state's chief job-creation officer. He is to be on the front lines of the state's effort to create jobs and economic opportunity.

Bolling's new role comes as the state's unemployment numbers have ticked up. And the recession has hit the Richmond region unusually hard.

The metro area traditionally has been fairly immune to slumps because there were so many steady government, finance and tobacco jobs. Economic diversification in recent years makes the area look more like the rest of the country and less like the rest of Virginia, where the federal government buoys Northern Virginia and the military powers the Hampton Roads economy.

The Richmond metropolitan area, which stretches from Caroline County in the north to Sussex County in the south, and from King and Queen County in the east to Cumberland County in the west, lost 13,000 jobs last year, a 2 percent contraction.

The biggest drops came in construction, down 5,200, as residential and commercial projects dried up during the slump. Factories shed 3,300 jobs. The financial sector, the focus of much of the area's diversification in recent years, dropped 2,900 jobs.

Despite state budget cuts, state government employment rose, by 2,300 over the period. Hard-hit local governments, though, have cut 800 jobs.

The biggest growth was in health care and education, up by 6,700 jobs.

. . .

Bolling's new assignment significantly elevates the former Hanover County state senator's traditional role as a part-time official, second in command to the governor.

Bolling will oversee four general efforts as the state's chief job-creation officer.

He's trying to navigate the legislative package through the General Assembly, and chairing a work group within the administration on economic development.

He is co-chairman, with McDonnell's senior economic adviser, Robert C. Sledd, of a commission on job creation and economic development that will include members from the private sector. He also will help the governor aggressively recruit new business to move to Virginia.

"If you're a business interested in Virginia and you're talking to the lieutenant governor, that's something different than talking to the executive director of an economic development department," Bolling said.

McDonnell said he does not think Bolling's role added a new layer of bureaucracy.

"It's an extension of the governor's office," he said. "I'm going to be on the phone trying. . . . When I can't, he will."

McDonnell said 22 states assign economic-development responsibilities to their lieutenant governors.

. . .

Christine Chmura, president and chief economist of Chmura Economics and Analytics, said focusing on economic-development programs makes sense now.

"Firms are just beginning to think about expanding jobs," she said. "With more bullets in the Governor's Opportunity Fund, Virginia stands a better chance of competing with some other states for large firms that are considering expanding or relocating."

McDonnell wants to increase the amount in the fund, used to attract businesses to Virginia, by $12.1 million in fiscal 2011. It's one component in his 20-bill legislative package, which also seeks to increase the appropriation for the Virginia Jobs Investment Program by $6.5 million in fiscal 2011 and increase funding for the Virginia Tourism Corporation by $3.6 million a year for the next two years.

At this point in the recovery, economic-development initiatives have more potential to boost jobs than big spending on transportation or other capital projects, Chmura said. Once the economy starts to accelerate, there will be more money for the transportation and education projects the state needs, she said.

She also likes the emphasis on small business and technology, because both sectors have great potential to generate jobs.

"Even though the millions proposed by the governor is a drop in the bucket compared to Virginia's $397 billion gross state product, his strategies are sound from an economic perspective and have the potential to boost job growth at a time when the state really needs it," she said.

Tony Carilli, an economics professor at Hampden-Sydney College, said the key is to create a more favorable environment for businesses and people by lowering state taxes and fees. He noted that state and local government spending in Virginia has nearly doubled since 2000.

"When the economy was going well, the state spent like drunken sailors on leave who find that once leave is over they don't have any money to send home to the family," he said.

Chris Chmura was quoted in recent article, SW Virginia economy outpacing state, nation:

LEBANON — Virginia’s seven-county coal-producing region has held up better economically than the rest of the state and the nation, an economist told members of the Virginia Coalfield Economic Development Authority’s executive board during a recent meeting in Richmond.

Chris Chmura, president of Chmura Economics & Analytics, addressed the VCEDA board and pointed to a number of reasons why the region that includes Wise, Lee and Scott counties has current unemployment rates lower than that of the nation during the ongoing recession.

Chmura said there are three main reasons why the coalfield region is holding up better than the state overall, even as Virginia is ranked eighth in the nation in employment growth.

Chmura said the coal industry has been strong, professional business services are growing, and construction is showing growth as well. Chmura attributes much of the construction element to Dominion Virginia Power’s project to build a new 585-megawatt coal-fired power plant in Wise County. The $1.8 billion facility is slated to go into operation in 2012.

Chmura also pointed to technology facilities located in Russell County by Northrop Grumman and CGI as major contributors to the region’s economy.

VCEDA Executive Director Jonathan Belcher said the region’s unemployment rates — which range from 5.9 percent to 10.8 percent, with an average of 8 percent — are “significantly lower than counties in surrounding states.”

“It is pleasing to see the region performing comparatively well, with unemployment lower than the national average, at a time when the nation has been in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression,” Belcher said.

“Our region is blessed with the coal and natural gas industries, growth in information technology sector jobs, and the tremendous economic impact of the power plant project in Wise County,” Belcher added. “All of these sectors are helping our region at this time, and our region is becoming more diversified. VCEDA plans to continue our regional focus on Virginia’s e-Region strategy of electronic information technology, energy, education and emerging technologies, and these numbers help verify the soundness of this strategy.”

During last year’s annual executive board meeting coinciding with VCEDA’s 20th anniversary, the group learned the authority helped bring 12,000 jobs and more than $2 billion in company investments to the region. During the past year another 313 jobs and over $13 million in private investments have been announced.

In 2009, Belcher said VCEDA approved $8.8 million in loans and grants for projects in the seven-county service area.

Virginia Economic Development Partnership Executive Director Jeff Anderson, a member of the VCEDA executive board, updated the group on economic development across Virginia and said VCEDA’s contributions to its service area stand out.

“A regional organization can crystallize economic development strategies,” Anderson said. “VCEDA has played a key role to bring the assets together, and a regional approach is key to success.”

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Robert Sledd, senior economic adviser to Gov. Bob McDonnell, also addressed the advisory board and discussed the role of economic development strategies to be implemented by the new administration.

Leslie Peterson was quoted in a recent article by Darrell Gleason, Highlands Tourism Strategy Outlined:

LOW MOOR- A strategy to help the Alleghany Highlands grow its tourism industry was outlined Monday night.

"The Alleghany Highlands Tourism Assessment and Marketing Strategy" was presented to community leaders and business representatives at the Alleghany County governmental complex in Low Moor.

The report, commissioned by The Alleghany Foundation, was conducted by Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond and OCG-International in Maitland, Fla.

The report shows that Alleghany County and Clifton Forge need to capitalize more on tourism, which is a growing industry in the region.

Tourism represents 8 percent of overall employment in the region. Leslie Peterson of Chmura Economics and Analytics said that the region is overly dependant on manufacturing for employment. Trends, she said, indicate that employment and population will continue to decline in the near future and tourism can help inject life into the economy.

"We hope the information presented here this evening will lay the groundwork to bring more tourism to the Highlands," Peterson said.

Joe Lathrop, who founded OCG in 1986, recommended that the Alleghany Highlands Chamber of Commerce be designated as a destination market organization. Destination market organizations are commonly known as convention and visitor's bureaus, he said.

As a DMO, the chamber of commerce would have two separate budgets. In addition to the $100,000 operational budget, an additional $150,000 should be dedicated annually for tourism, he said.

A tourism advisory council would be established to provide the chamber with tourism marketing strategy and leadership to the chamber of commerce.

The marketing strategy, Lathrop said, should focus on tourism assets that are unique to the Highlands, such as scenic beauty, outdoor recreation, Humpback Bridge, railroad heritage and amateur sports.

He said primary emphasis on marketing the Highlands to prospective tourists should be placed on developing a state-of-the-art Web site.

"Ninety percent of all travelers now plan on the Internet," Lathrop said.

The Web site would likely cost $50,000 to $75,000 to develop with annual upkeep ranging from $25,000 to $50,000.

"All of your destination assets should go on the Web site," Lathrop said. "The site should also have the ability to book business in the area."

He said the Highlands also needs to develop a destination visitor guide devoted excusively to tourism. 

"The current Alleghany Living publication that is used now is not crafted for the visitor," he said.

Lathrop also cited a need for an easily accessible visitor's center that has clear signage, and booking capabilities.

"Neither downtown [Covington or Clifton Forge] meets the accessibility standard," he said.

While the Highlands is not being adequately marketed to prospective visitors, Peterson said tourism is still growing in the region.

A recent survey of 60 visitors showed that 72 percent came to the Highlands for leisure activities. The survey further indicated that outdoor scenery and outdoor recreation are two of the main drawing cards for the region.

Nevertheless, visitors who participated in the survey said there is a lack of available lodging, particularly bed and breakfasts, in the Highlands. Visitors also cited a need for more restaurants.

Teresa Hammond, executive director of the Alleghany Highlands Chamber of Commerce, said the Alleghany County Board of Supervisors and Covington City Council will be asked to approve resolutions designating the chamber as a destination marketing organization.

Hammond said legislation being considered by the Virginia General Assembly could potentially provide the chamber with more financial resources to market the area to tourists.

The legislation, introduced by Del. Jim Shuler, D-Blacksburg, would give Alleghany County and Covington the option of increasing their transient occupancy taxes on lodging. The tax in each locality is now 2 percent.

If Alleghany County raises its transient occupant tax above 2 percent, state law requires that the additional revenue be earmarked for tourism. Currently, all money collected from the transient occupancy tax goes to the county's general fund.

Covington, on the other hand, would have to agree to designate any additional revenues from the tax for tourism. Cities are not required by state law to designate revenues above the 2 percent level toward tourism.

Peterson said copies of the report presented Monday night will be available in the near future.

Chris Chmura is quoted in a Carol Hazard's article on January 23, 2010.

Virginia's unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent in December from 6.6 percent in November, according to a U.S. Department of Labor report released yesterday.

The previous year in December, the unemployment rate in Virginia was 5 percent. The November figure was revised upward from 6.4 percent.

Nationally, the unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 10 percent, up from 7.4 percent a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Virginia was one of 43 states and the District of Columbia that saw their monthly unemployment rates rise. Three states had unchanged rates from November to December. Only four saw their rates drop.

Michigan continued to record the highest unemployment rate, at 14.6 percent in December. North Dakota had the lowest, at 4.4 percent.

In Virginia, the labor force dropped by 8,200 in December from November, while the number of unemployed increased by 13,000.

"A larger number of people who are unemployed and a smaller labor force drove the unemployment rate up in Virginia," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.

"As a recession goes on, more people become discouraged because they can't find a job and they drop out of the labor force." That was the case in Virginia, Chmura said.

However, Virginia recorded the largest increase in payroll employment, 9,500, with gains in construction for the second straight month, which added 2,100 job and bodes well for housing, Chmura said.

Professional services added 5,000 jobs, education and health services was up by 2,000 jobs, and other services, which includes repair and maintenance, salon workers, laundry and housekeeping services, were up 4,300.

Manufacturing, transportation, information-technology and financial services in Virginia continued to lose jobs.

"The fact that payroll employment grew in December is very good news that the economy is on the mend," Chmura said.

CHRISTINE CHMURA TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST
Published: January 11, 2010

With the recession now over, according to most economists, the question becomes: “How long will it take to recover all the jobs lost?” Observing the employment patterns of the past few recoveries can provide some insight into job growth in the current recovery.

We need to look at how long and to what degree employment changed in the Richmond area for each of the past four recessions.

We start where peak employment stood at the onset of the recession and then look at the number of months and the percentage loss of employment until it hit bottom, called the trough. Eventually, more jobs are created and employment starts to increase. What’s key is how long it takes before employment increases to its pre-recession level.

Looking to the past recessions may give us a clue as to where employment recovery may take hold after the 2008 recession, which began in December 2007 and many believe ended in July 2009.

During the 2001 recession, for example, employment dropped 1.9 percent over 23 months. Yet it took nine months before employment rebounded 2 percent — to the pre-recession level. That was the quickest rebound among the past four recessions. The 2001 recession started in March and ended in November of that year.

The largest percentage employment decline among the past four recessions in the Richmond area came during the 2008 recession, falling 4.5 percent.

The 1990 recession, from July 1990 to March 1991, saw a 3.2 percent decline in employment — and it took the longest to regain jobs. That recession hit Richmond and the state particularly hard because of cuts in defense spending and overbuilding in the office sector.

The tendency for state and local government employment to lag during recoveries probably contributes to the relatively long employment rebounds in the Richmond area.

One could argue that the 1990 recovery provides the most-likely trajectory for the 2008 recovery. Both of those recoveries were associated with more headwinds than in the aftermath of the 2001 and 1980 recessions. The 1980 recession is the period that first started in January 1980 to July 1980 and then again from July 1981 to November 1982.

The post-1990 recession economy was still struggling under the savings and loan collapse of the prior decade, an overbuilt office sector and cuts in defense spending. Technological advances, such as computers and bar codes, to name a few, were more fully implemented to save costs during the recession, which also led to higher productivity but slower job growth coming out of the recession.

Similarly, the recovery beginning in mid-2009 continues to struggle under the weight of the finance-sector implosion, foreclosures in housing, pressure on commercial real estate and a national double-digit unemployment rate.

Also, the 8.1 percent annualized rise in productivity in the nation for the third quarter suggests technology gains will temper the need to add employees at a rapid pace during the recovery.

Time will tell how long it will take.

Christine Chmura is president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics. She can be reached at (804) 649-3640 or www.chmuraecon.com

By DAVID RESS
Published: January 14, 2010

The recession's effects are lingering longest in the middle of the East Coast, including the region served by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The Richmond and Philadelphia banks were the only ones to report mixed economic conditions for the latest Federal Reserve System Beige Book survey, released yesterday.

The nation's 10 other Federal Reserve Banks all said conditions continued to improve modestly over the past six weeks.

"I'm a little surprised that Richmond is one of only two districts not to see improvement," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist of Chmura Economics & Analytics.

Chmura said one reason the Richmond district likely didn't do as well was the snowstorm that hit the area last month.

That cut retail sales and may have slowed other economic activity, she said.

While most of the country reported better holiday sales in 2009, that wasn't the case in the Richmond bank's Maryland-to-South Carolina territory, where sales were weaker.

"Big-ticket sales languished, notably at automobile dealerships," reported the Richmond Fed, which added that a central Virginia hardware chain owner did report a slight increase in customer traffic.

"Consumers were eating out less than before, despite the 'specials' offered at area restaurants," the Richmond Fed said.

The Richmond bank's area also bucked a trend of improving revenue in services business, the only district to report a decline.

Six of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks reported manufacturing activity improved, through Richmond reported "widespread weakness across shipments, new orders and employment," the Beige Book noted.

And while home sales increased toward the end of 2009 in most of the nation, Richmond reported mixed activity.

Richmond bucked the national trend in finance, too -- but in a different way.

While loan demand remained weak in most of the country, the Richmond bank reported demand from industrial firms was steady to slightly higher, particularly for equipment purchases.

"Nonetheless, most bankers reaffirmed that small businesses were still experiencing a large number of loan rejections due to tight credit standards and weak earnings," the Richmond Fed said.

The Richmond District, like most of the rest of the country, saw soft conditions in the labor markets.

Port activity in the district was up, however.

The Beige Book, named for the color of its cover, is published eight times a year as a way of giving Federal Reserve policymakers the very latest signals from the economy.

Chris Chmura is mentioned in an article by Joan Beals published on 1/13/2010:

BY JONAS BEALS

The Stafford Board of Supervisors last night approved a public hearing to consider abolishing the Business, Professional and Occupational License tax.

They also directed county staff to immediately cease all actions regarding the collection of the BPOL tax, which took effect Jan. 1.

The resolution passed 5-2, with supervisors Bob Woodson and Harry Crisp voting against. The public hearing is scheduled for Feb. 2.

After hearing from a number of local economic experts during last night's special meeting, the Board resolved to redouble its efforts when it comes to attracting and retaining businesses. Part of that effort could now include removing the BPOL fee.

"Not having the BPOL tax is the single reason we lead the state in most major economic indicators," Supervisor Paul Milde said.

The presentations made to the board painted a fairly rosy picture for Stafford's future, considering the deep recession that has affected the national economy.

Most speakers, including Chris Chmura of Chmura Economics and Analytics and William Beale of Union Bankshares Corp., pointed to lower average wages and a well-educated work force as positive characteristics that make Stafford attractive to businesses.

Economic Development Authority Chairman Don Newlin mentioned Northrop Grumman, a company that recently announced it will move its headquarters from California to the Washington, D.C., area. Newlin said Northrop Grumman is looking at Stafford, thanks to investments made in the past.

"They wouldn't be looking here if we didn't have the hospital and the airport," he said.

Newlin and Beale encouraged Stafford to create a business-friendly climate for new and existing businesses by reducing taxes and streamlining permitting processes--something that many of the recently elected members of the board promised to do during their campaigns.

The key to bringing those jobs into the county, Chmura said, is "being a county where growth is important."

Supervisor Cord Sterling said that eliminating the BPOL tax will allow Stafford to send that message, while generating local jobs that could end long commutes for many residents.

If BPOL is repealed, the county will again collect a merchants' capital tax.

...

Read the full article.

A recent study by Chmura Economics was mentioned in VRA's January 7th press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 7, 2010
Contact: Rod Davis
Strategic Projects Manager
Virginia Resources Authority
(757) 477-7763
Rdavis@virginiaresources.org

VRA Investments Activated Major Economic Engine in Virginia
~ Economic impact study shows 35 jobs supported per million dollars of VRA loans ~

RICHMOND – Virginia Resources Authority invested over $2.2 billion in Virginia’s vital infrastructure during the period between fiscal year 2006 to calendar year-end 2009, producing over 40% of VRA’s lifetime performance. The loans to localities generated jobs and economic growth across the Commonwealth. These findings are documented in a 2009 professional study, Economic and Fiscal Impacts from VRA Loan Programs on the Commonwealth of Virginia, by Chmura Economics and Analytics.

According to the Chmura study, VRA’s vital infrastructure investments in FY2006-CYE2009 generated over $3.3 billion of construction spending and over 31,000 one-time construction jobs. Additionally, the investments are supporting over $13.0 billion of additional sustained spending and over 124,000 permanent jobs. These tremendous economic impacts are enhancing the vitality and economic growth of every planning district in the Commonwealth.

Among the key findings, the study confirmed:

• Each $1 million of VRA infrastructure investment supported 35 permanent jobs.
• VRA generated more than $3.3 billion of construction spending and over 31,000 onetime construction jobs in just four years (FY 2006-FY2009).
• Infrastructure investments FY2006-FY2009 are supporting over $13.0 billion in sustained additional spending and more than 124,000 permanent jobs in Virginia.
• VRA’s investments in rural infrastructure more than doubled the employment impacts of the same dollars invested in urban areas (60% of total VRA loans).
• Lasting employment impact: Counties receiving VRA infrastructure loans since FY 1986grew about 1.0% faster than other counties.

“We typically think of state agencies almost solely as service providers as opposed to their capacity for creating jobs in the private sector,” said President & Chief Economist Christine Chmura. “We used some credible nationally recognized economic models to conduct our analysis and I can say that the Virginia Resource Authority is clearly one of the exceptions.” “As a long-time resident of the Shenandoah Valley, I’m particularly pleased about the study’s findings of VRA’s tremendous economic and employment impact in rural communities,” said William O’Brien, VRA Board Chair.

“This independent study has enabled us to connect the dots between VRA’s investments in local communities and their substantial economic and employment impacts across the Commonwealth,” said VRA Executive Director Sheryl Bailey. “This study confirms that VRA’s statewide infrastructure investments have boosted the productive and job capacity of Virginia’s regional economies.”

The economic impact of VRA loans can be grouped into two categories: one-time construction impacts when the dollars associated with VRA loans are injected into the economy during project construction, and sustained impacts after VRA-funded loan projects are complete. Once constructed, capital investments in community infrastructure such as water and sewer facilities have long-lasting, sustained economic benefits in attracting businesses and creating permanent jobs. Both impacts are key to economic vitality.

To view the study’s executive summary, please visit www.virginiaresources.org.

Chris Chmura is mentioned in a December 2009 Times-Dispatch article:

WESLEY P. HESTER AND JOHN REID BLACKWELL
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITERS
Published: December 31, 2009 

From terrorism to natural disasters to recession, it's been a bumpy decade. What can we expect in the next 10 years? The first 10 years of the new millennium -- already coined the "Big Zero" decade by economist Paul Krugman and the "Uh-Oh" decade by Miami Herald columnist Leonard Pitts Jr. -- likely will not be remembered as the best of times, especially in America.

Terrorism, mass shootings, scandals, recession . . . the list goes on.

With 9/11 toward the start, a financial crash toward the end, and Hurricane Katrina in the middle, it was a decade of low points broken up by an occasional highlight.

But if nothing else, it gives us hope that the "terrible teens" will be anything but.

Dan Roberts, an associate professor of history and liberal arts at the University of Richmond and host of the "A Moment in Time" show on National Public Radio, hopes America has taken some lessons away from the tough times.

"We're going to have to be citizens of the world," he said. "Even though we remain the one superpower that can act independently, we're learning increasingly that that is counterproductive if we want to accomplish our goals and do business in the world."

He was encouraged to see that Americans are "coming to grips with the fact that we need to be more artful and smarter in the use of the resources we have."

With regard to the immediate future, of course, the economy is on everyone's mind.

Coming out of a deep hole, 2010 will be more of a transition year, offered Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics, a Richmond-based forecasting firm.

"Overall, the economy is recovering at a modest pace," she said, adding that the job market will likely see some recovery in the second half of the year.

"On the positive side, we are looking for housing activity to continue to recover," she said. The firm foresees building permits in Virginia rising 8.7 percent in 2010 after a decline of nearly 20 percent in 2009, while the Richmond area will see a smaller 3 percent gain after a decline of 35 percent in 2009.

"I don't see a boom, but I do see most of the world recovering and the U.S. recovering, so things will be better," added A. Marshall Acuff Jr., managing director and chairman of the investment committee at Cary Street Partners in Richmond.

Acuff is also bullish on the stock market, in part because all the cost-cutting measures that businesses implemented in 2009 should help their profits in 2010, which in turn should help propel stocks.

But long-term issues include a trend toward rising interest rates, reflecting possible inflationary pressures that may intensify going forward.

"Consequently, the stock market in the years ahead probably is going to be in a kind of up-and-down pattern, very similar to what occurred between 1966 and 1982, and between 1929 and 1950," he said.

Some are less convinced that things are turning around at all.

"I am an optimist and I try to look on the bright side of everything, but frankly, at this point, I just do not see the light at the end of the tunnel," said John Cox, whose company, Cox Transportation, provides trucking from the West Coast to the East Coast.

Cox, who was elected to the Virginia House of Delegates this year, said he is even more worried about the long-term implications of the national debt.

"At a time when we are in a deep recession, we are printing money and spending money we don't have and mortgaging our kids' and grandkids' future," he said.

Politically, Virginia's status as a purple or swing state will continue and presidential elections will focus on Virginia as they did in 2008, said Stephen Farnsworth, a political commentator at George Mason University.

"Virginia is a great state to watch if you like politics," he said.

Though Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell has yet to take office, those with gubernatorial ambitions are surely eyeing the 2013 election.

"I think [Lt. Gov.] Bill Bolling figures it will be his turn, but [Attorney General-elect] Ken Cuccinelli may have other ideas," Farnsworth said. "For the Democrats, it could be a wide-open competition. It wouldn't surprise me if Tim Kaine ran again in 2013."

As for the big-picture outlook, Glen Hiemstra, founder of Seattle-based Futurist.com, sees perhaps the biggest development of the next decade as the "Age Wave" brought on by baby boomers reaching retirement age and the influence it will have on jobs, transportation, housing, Social Security and other areas.

"If you want to see the future circa 2020, go to Florida and look around," he said.

Roberts added that two things are almost certain for America.

"We're going to have to deal -- and deal rather directly and firmly -- with religious extremism and how that interacts with international relations," he said.

"And in the United States, I think we're going to finally catch up to the rest of the industrialized world with something approximating universal health care."