Chmura Recession Monitor Through June 2019: 35%

Economic growth in the United States has generally been modest to moderate since the recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2009. After increasing at a 4.2% annual rate in the 2nd quarter of 2018, real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the 3rd quarter as growth in consumer spending remained strong and a healthy contribution to growth from change in private inventories offset a subtraction from trade. Due to the 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 in December and the narrowing yield spread, the probability of recession jumped to 35% through June 2019.

Trade War and Chinese Currency Devaluation

Since President Trump took office, trade policy has been an essential component of his overall economic agenda, in addition to tax cuts and regulatory changes. After passing the tax cut legislation in 2017, the administration started implementing major changes to trade policies in 2018 with goals of reducing the U.S. trade deficit and generating jobs in America. For example, the administration re-negotiated the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada (USMCA Agreement) to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Heartbeats (and eats) of an Economy

In honor of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies (NASWA) Workforce Summit/81st Annual Meeting being held October 2017 in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, we want to provide attendees and other potential visitors with some essential local knowledge and a few insights related to Coeur d’Alene’s economy.

Putting Corporate Tax Reform in Perspective

Since assuming office in January, the Trump Administration has taken steps to enact policies with a wide range of impacts in the areas of healthcare, environment, immigration, and the economy. Economic policies have not been at the front and center of the media or public discourse lately, but understanding what may come is still extremely important. Potential changes in economic policies may include personal income tax cuts, corporate tax reform, and federal budget shifts, each of which can be quite complex. In this blog, we take a closer look at the different proposals for corporate tax reform.

The Economic Effect of the Proposed Economic Policy of the Trump Administration

With the election over, Chmura evaluates the economic effects of the proposed economic policy changes by the Trump Administration. The major policy initiatives involve lowering corporate and individual income taxes, reducing business regulations, increasing military spending and infrastructure investment, and changing trade policies. If implemented, the Trump economic policies will have widespread impacts on the economy, affecting personal consumption, business investment, government spending, as well as imports and exports. Those policies can boost short-term economic growth, yet the long-term effects are less certain.