Economic Impact: Political polls, like economic forecasts, can vary greatly depending on assumptions

Predicting economic growth and the outcome of elections have something in common: Both rely on assumptions. Similarly, the results of political polls vary greatly depending on the assumptions the pollsters make. Poll respondents should reflect the demographic makeup of the population, but that almost never happens. So pollsters should weigh the sample results of their survey to reflect reality.

Economic Impact: Forecast for 2020 looks better than it did a year ago

What a difference a year makes. Chmura Economics & Analytics is forecasting slower U.S. growth in the gross domestic product and in employment. GDP growth should increase 1.9% in 2020, compared with 2.3% growth last year. Employment growth should be 1.1% this year compared with 1.5% in 2019. We expect employment growth in the state and Richmond metro area to be about the same as the nation in 2020.

Economic Impact: National business economists foresee slowdown in U.S. growth

If you’ve ever spent time with a couple of economists, you may walk away thinking they never agree and enjoy criticizing each other’s models and assumptions. After spending a few days with over 300 economists at the National Association for Business Economics conference last week, I walked away with a different view. The possibility of recession and trade wars was a hot topic. An NABE panel predicts the nation will not see a recession in 2020, but that the real gross domestic product growth rate will slow to 1.8% — the first time since 2016 it has fallen below 2% with risks on the downside.