We predict relatively strong real GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.0% in 2021. But we’re not forecasting a Roaring 20s similar to what the U.S. experienced after the 1918 pandemic.
Employment growth in the leisure and hospitality over the next few months likely will slow because of the uptick in COVID-19 cases.
In this blog, Dr. Chris Chmura unpacks Q3 2020 data on GDP, income, spending, and wages. Although many economic trends are pointing toward sprouts of growth, the resurgence in cases of coronavirus around the globe remains a risk to short-term growth as we wait for a vaccine.
It is an important time of year for retailers as holiday sales represent about 20% of the retail industry's total sales. But the typical signals forecasters use to predict holiday sales are not very helpful during this COVID environment.
Regardless of when the vaccine is widely distributed, the type of people most affected are those with less education. This is because jobs linked to the retail, recreation and hospitality sectors typically require in-person work and often only require a high school degree.