Update 1/24/2012 1:33 PM EST:  A full copy of the report can be found here: http://www.transportation.virginia.gov/initiatives/R460_EconomicImpact.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 24, 2012

Contact: Christine Chmura, Ph.D.
Phone: (804) 649-3640
Email: Chris.Chmura@chmuraecon.com 

NEW ROUTE 460 WILL GENERATE BILLIONS IN JOBS AND BUSINESS

RICHMOND - The proposed Route 460 highway corridor between Hampton Roads and Petersburg will do more than shave drive time for motorists. 

It will also inject billions of dollars into the region and create jobs in construction, services, manufacturing, and at the Port of Virginia, said Virginia Secretary of Transportation Sean Connaughton in announcing the results of an economic impact study of the highway project.

The study was performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics, which has offices in Richmond and Cleveland.

“This new road is one of the most significant transportation infrastructure enhancements Virginia has seen in years,” said Connaughton. “Everyone will benefit, both from a safer and faster new road to the huge economic impact this project will have.”

The proposed $1.6-billion corridor will run through the counties of Prince George, Sussex, Southampton and Isle of Wight, and the city of Suffolk, directly linking Interstate 295 in Petersburg to the area around the Port of Virginia in Suffolk. The 55-mile, four-lane highway would run parallel and south of the existing Route 460.

After the project is finished, the total annual impact of the Route 460 Corridor Improvement Project is estimated at $7.3 billion through the generation of business and thousands of jobs, according to the economic analysis performed for the Commonwealth.

Hampton Roads will benefit from a $5.7-billion economic boost annually, while the corridor region will see a $2.5 billion infusion. Overall, the project can support more than 14,000 new jobs in 2020 and beyond.

Additionally, the road will help the Port of Virginia compete with Ports of Savannah and Charleston for fast-growing North Carolina markets such as Charlotte and Raleigh, and solidify its competitive advantages over these Southeast seaports.

Businesses such as hotels, gas stations, retail stores, and restaurants will spring up around interstate interchanges to better server motorists and local residents.

And the new Route 460 could accelerate the development of the two manufacturing “mega sites” in the counties of Isle of Wight and Sussex.  

When the project is complete in 2020, the Commonwealth will receive nearly $60 million in sales, gas, corporate and individual income taxes. Local governments along the corridor will get annual tax benefits totaling $3.7 million starting in 2020 in the form of sales, meal, lodging and other forms of tax revenue.

“This is going to be a much faster and more efficient highway than the existing Route 460. It will have shoulders, medians and divided sections that the current road doesn’t have,” said Secretary Connaughton. 

“As a result, everyone will get to where they’re going quicker - a straight shot,” he said. “That’s going to help motorists any time of the day. It will make it more attractive for businesses thinking about locating here and it will generate new business around the interchanges as well. It’s a win-win.”

This article was originally published in the Richmond Times-Dispatch on 1/2/2012.

During the past couple of months, several non-economists have mentioned to me that they have this feeling that the Richmond region's economy is getting ready to take off.

I typically tell them that the numbers simply don't support that sentiment.

The region's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.6 percent in October, compared with a 6.4 percent rate for Virginia. (The jobless rates for the Richmond metro area and other regions of the state for November are to be released Wednesday.)

The region's employment in October fell 0.7 percent from a year ago. The state gained 0.6 percent in total employment.

Some say the Richmond metropolitan area didn't do that bad during the recession once the unusual amount of corporate bankruptcies that affected the region are accounted for.

I tested that logic by taking out about 4,500 jobs when Circuit City, Qimonda and LandAmerica shut down in 2008 and 2009.

By doing that, the metro area employment contracted 5.6 percent from its peak in September 2007 through October. But by including those job losses, the region saw a 6.3 percent contraction, or a total of about 40,000 jobs, since the peak.

That compares with an employment contraction of 3.7 percent in the state from its peak in April 2008 and 4.8 percent in the nation from its peak in January 2008.

Richmond's dependence on the finance, insurance and real estate industries drove employment numbers lower than in the nation even when the large bankrupt firms are excluded.

Where is the optimism coming from?

The doubling in employment at Fort Lee is one obvious reason for optimism. The expansion of Rolls-Royce, a well-known, high-quality firm, into the area is another reason for confidence. Both expansions are likely to draw additional businesses to the region.

Aside from those events, the city of Richmond has become more vibrant over the past decade.

Buildings that have been renovated into apartments and condominiums have brought activity to downtown Richmond that is making it a more enticing place to visit than just on weekends. For instance, the first phase of the $70 million project to convert the former Hotel John Marshall into the Residences at the John Marshall apartments is completed, after five years in the making.

Even though the region's dependence on finance, insurance and real estate hampered the area during the past recession, its mix of industries is favorable for future growth.

Chmura Economics & Analytics forecasts that the region will add nearly 75,000 jobs during the next 10 years, which translates into a growth rate of 1.2 percent per year compared with a 0.9 percent per year in the nation.

In fact, the Richmond metro area is likely to grow faster than the Chmura forecast because our report did not take into account the recent announcement that Amazon.com Inc. will open two huge distribution centers in Chesterfield and Dinwiddie counties, creating 1,350 jobs. Nor does the report account for the impact from hosting the Road World Championships cycling race in 2015.

After acknowledging Richmond's recent losses and subpar growth, I conclude that there are a lot of reasons we should expect Richmond's economy to take off during the next decade.

The Chmura uranium study, The Socioeconomic Impact of Uranium Mining and Milling in the Chatham Labor Shed, Virginia, was mentioned in a recent Richmond Times-Dispatch article:

A study by Chmura Economics & Analytics, a forecasting firm, said last month that a mine could support 1,000 jobs a year and generate nearly $5 billion in revenue for Virginia businesses over 35 years. But serious pollution problems could create losses that far outweigh benefits, the report said.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that Virginians are split over uranium mining. Forty-three percent support it for its economic benefits, while 41 percent oppose it because of its risks. Republicans overwhelming support mining, while Democrats strongly oppose it.

Ultimately, the question becomes: Is it possible to engineer, build and regulate a Virginia uranium mine in a way that protects people and the environment?

"Absolutely!" said Virginia Uranium's Wales. "All of our technical work leads us to that conclusion, and if we thought otherwise we would not be pursuing it. We are committed to building the safest uranium mine in the world."

Asked the same question, deFur, the study panel member, said: "I don't know. I'm not being cagey. I don't know."

Update 11/30/2011: This study has been completed and can be downloaded here: The Socioeconomic Impact of Uranium Mining and Milling in the Chatham Labor Shed, Virginia. Read more about Chmura Economics & Analytics.

Original Post 12/9/2010:

On December 8th, Virginia selected Chmura Economics & Analytics to perform a socio-economic study on uranium mining in Virginia. Below are some press clippings of the announcement:

Bloomberg.com (via Associated Press) - Va. company to assess uranium mining impact

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — A company that has studied the economic impact of highway investments and airports will turn its focus to uranium mining in Virginia under a $200,000 socio-economic study commissioned by the state.

A legislative subcommittee on Wednesday unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics of Richmond from among five other consulting groups that made presentations.

The Chmura study will analyze the possible consequences on home prices, wages, tax revenues and other issues related to mining a 119-million-pound uranium deposit in Southside Virginia.

... read more

GoDanRiver.com - Richmond firm chosen for uranium study

RICHMOND — A Richmond firm well-known for conducting economic impact analyses in Virginia will conduct the study assessing the socioeconomic impacts of uranium mining around Coles Hill in Pittsylvania County.

On Wednesday, the Uranium Mining Subcommittee of the Virginia Coal and Energy Commission unanimously selected Chmura Economics & Analytics — one of six firms vying for the project.

“It’s a very important project,” said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist. “It can make a huge difference to the economy in Pittsylvania County if the ore is mined, but it can also have a huge adverse impact if it cannot be mined safely.”

Subcommittee member Sen. John Watkins moved to name Chmura as the vendor for the $200,000 study, based on his readings of the firm’s other analyses and Chmura’s reputation to deliver unbiased analysis.

...

 

Leslie Peterson, partner at Chmura, said the study goes beyond more business for the firm.

“It’s because we live and work and have our families in Virginia,” Peterson said. “We’re committed to seeing the best socioeconomic impact study delivered to the residents of the commonwealth.”

 

... read more

Chris Chmura was recently interviewed by WHSV:

Great article in this week's WSJ (Seeking to Match Skills and Jobs). Our internal research and conversations with our clients are telling us the same exact thing regarding the skill mismatch. There is a shortage of workers with specialized skills, and while this shortage should ease over time as students shift studies into these areas, we are seeing a very slow alleviation of this mismatch. Intuition and economic theory tell us that this alleviation will occur eventually because the availability of high paying jobs incentivize students to go into this field. Unfortunately, in many ways the data is mixed on how quickly this happens in reality, if at all. 

First, the returns to studying a hard science have generally been high and increasing over the past two decades, but U.S. student enrollment in many of these fields has been anemic, particularly at the post-graduate level. Also, institutions of higher learning from universities to community colleges are typically quite slow to adapt their curriculum and faculty (community colleges unencumbered by lots of tenured faculty tend to do better) to new demands for skills or competencies desired by the fastest growing industries.

The skills mismatch is evident when you analyze and estimate underemployment. Underemployment is a squishy thing and it is defined in several ways, but the Wikipedia definition is reasonably good. It is the under-utilization of the workforce either through reduced hours, over-qualified workers in lower-level jobs, or high unemployment of otherwise highly skilled/highly productive workers. 

We have a graphic that looks at the likelihood for underemployment across the U.S. Our chart really deals with highly-skilled workers and looks at the demand by county for these workers relative to supply and the unemployment rate and comes up with a way to proxy where people are either taking jobs they are overqualified for or are highly skilled (bachelor’s degree or more) and can’t find work. So the real message of the graphic is that that in addition to high unemployment across the country, there are real pockets of underemployment to boot, even among the highly skilled and highly experienced workers. 

Great article in the Columbus Dispatch about the potential of Sears moving to Columbus. JobsEQ data and analytics were utilized in this report. Our basic economic impact model, desirability index, and several workforce alignment analytics were utilized to show that Colubmus is quite competitive to win the re-location of Sears HQ.

Read the full article.

The Daily News-Record covered the recenet economic summit at Bridgewater College.  Chris Chmura, one of the panelists, was quoted:

Although the recession officially ended in June 2009, tight credit markets and an explosion in home foreclosures have compounded the sluggish growth rate, Chmura explained.

She doesn’t expect employment levels to swing back to pre-recession levels until 2015, the year today’s freshmen will graduate.

In July, the Harrisonburg metropolitan area’s unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, tied for 34th lowest out of 372 metro areas nationwide. Still, five years ago the local jobless rate was just 2.9 percent.

Chmura said higher education is still a worthwhile investment, but not all degrees or occupations are equal. For example, there’s a glut of marketing majors, but a growing need for registered nurses in Virginia.

“You really need to know your options,” Chmura said. “Is the occupation that you’re going into in demand? Is it in demand in your region?”

Read the full article (subscription required)

Governor Bob McDonnell issued the following statement this morning following the announcement in Copenhagen that Richmond has been selected to serve as host city for the 2015 World Road Cycling Championships.

“I want to congratulate Richmond Mayor Dwight Jones, Tim Miller of Richmond 2015 and all the public and private sector individuals and groups who played a role in securing this major sporting event for Richmond and central Virginia. This international competition will spur economic activity in the state and help grow our economy. An economic impact study conducted by Chmura Economics & Analytics found that the 2015 World Road Cycling Championships is projected to generate more than $86 million within the City of Richmond and a total of $135 million for the entire Commonwealth. 500,000 spectators are expected to attend the nine-day event, with another 300 million tuning in to watch from all across the world. That all adds up to booked hotel rooms, busy restaurants, and priceless global marketing opportunities for the city and the Commonwealth. 

Today’s selection follows yesterday’s announcement that 2010 saw record international tourism spending in Virginia. Clearly, the Commonwealth is expanding its presence on the global stage, to the benefit of job creation and economic growth here at home. Our Administration is committed to keeping this momentum going through working with localities on projects such as this one, aggressively pitching Virginia businesses and products to overseas markets and consumers, opening trade offices in England, India and China and constantly looking for every opportunity to tell the world about our “Commonwealth of Opportunity.” This is a great step forward in that endeavor. Again, I congratulate Mayor Jones and everyone involved for their tremendous success in landing this prestigious event for the Commonwealth of Virginia.”

Update 9/22/2011:

The economic impact study performed by Chmura has been mentioned on several other sites, including:

• Bike World News - Richmond, Virginia wins 2015 World Championships bid
• Virginia Business Magazine - Richmond selected to host international cycling event
• The Virginian-Pilot - Richmond to host 2015 cycling world championships
• MarketWatch - United States of America Awarded 2015 UCI Road World Cycling Championships

A recent report created by Chmura Economics & Analytics was featured in the Richmond Times-Dispatch article Study: Housing Trust Fund would help boost Virginia's economy:

The creation of a housing trust fund would help boost Virginia's economy, according to a report released Thursday by Chmura Economics & Analytics.

The study shows that a Virginia Housing Trust Fund — a fund for affordable housing — would inject $1 billion into the economy during a 10-year period and support 1,778 jobs in Virginia.

Economist Christine Chmura presented the findings Thursday to about 50 housing advocates and state representatives at a breakfast meeting at the downtown SunTrust branch. She summarized the findings for the media during a telephone news conference.

The study assumes a $10 million a year investment for 10 years from the state, which must be approved by the General Assembly.

The creation of a trust fund has been bandied about for years but has not yet won approval. About 40 states have similar funds.

Read the full article.